Standard Chartered senior economist Tommy Wu raises Taiwan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast from 3.8% to 8.0%, citing robust expansion in Q4 2025 and robust global demand for semiconductors. The bank expects economic momentum to continue through 2026, supported by rising ICT and electronics exports and the recent trade agreement with the US, but economic growth will remain uneven and income disparities may widen.
AI-powered export boom improves prospects
“We are raising our GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 8.0% (from 3.8%) due to robust growth in Q4 2025 of 12.7% y/y and growth in 2025 by 8.7%. The escalate in the forecast partly reflects the robust q/q growth dynamics in Q4 (at 5.4%). Although we expect a statistical return in Q1 2026 after extremely high growth in Q4 quarter, economic momentum is likely to escalate and remain solid through 2026 as we expect global semiconductor demand to continue on an upward trend and support Taiwan’s exports.”
“In fact, exports increased by 70% y-o-y in January ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays in February (after growing 49.4% in Q4 2025), as shipments of ICT products and electronic components increased.”
“Moreover, the recent trade deal with the US would provide relief to exporters, given that the US accounts for 30% of Taiwan’s exports.”
“Growth is likely to remain uneven and further widen disparities in household income.”
“We continue to expect CBC to maintain selective credit control measures to reduce real estate debt.”
(This article was created with the lend a hand of an artificial intelligence tool and has been reviewed by an editor.)
