Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price has traded at successive lows with almost no hope of a bullish reversal. However, on Friday, February 13, the flagship cryptocurrency recorded an raise in dynamics, and then its value increased by 5.4%.

While this may have been good for short-term traders (particularly scalpers), it appears that there is a troubling future ahead for the leading cryptocurrency. This bearish forecast is based on the latest technical assessment of Bitcoin’s price.

The SuperTrend indicator flashes on the monthly BTC timeframe

In a February 14 post on social media platform X, influential technical analyst Ali Martinez revealed that the Bitcoin market may soon experience a significant macro trend change. This hypothesis is based on the SuperTrend indicator, which is a technical tool that indicates whether a given asset (in this case Bitcoin) is in an upward or downward trend.

This indicator marks an ending level that acts as vigorous support when the price is in an uptrend, or resistance when it is in a downtrend. When the price is above the SuperTrend line, the market is considered to be in an uptrend; while when the price is below the line, it means that the market is in a downtrend.

When a candle closes significantly below the vigorous trend line when it was previously in an uptrend, it means that the market has turned bearish and vice versa. Interestingly, on a monthly basis, the candle is currently trading below the SuperTrend line, which indicates that the market may be heading in a bearish direction.

Interestingly, the current configuration resembles the passage of cycles from the past. From the chart shared by the analyst, it is clear that Bitcoin’s macrostructure has undergone a series of expansions and deep pullbacks.

These retracements were also properly illustrated on the indicator in the early stages. Before the end of the 2014-2015, 2018 and 2022 bear markets, the SuperTrend indicator issued a sell signal, after which the market entered a bear phase.

Given that a sell signal has appeared on Bitcoin’s monthly chart, this could mean that the retracement here could be long-term, as expected in a typical bear market. However, it is worth noting that the current market dynamics are significantly different from previous cycles, as institutions are more involved and ETFs broaden investors’ horizons.

So these fundamental changes may play a role in the current cycle. If the sell signal from the SuperTrend indicator coincides with on-chain activity and macro events, and Bitcoin manages to close below the SuperTrend line, a bear market is likely to occur, that is, one in which Bitcoin can be seen devalued by at least 60%.

On the other hand, if recent demand comes to the Bitcoin market and the flagship cryptocurrency shows resilience, the current signal could become a short-term warning rather than a bear market signal.

Bitcoin price at a glance

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $68,984, reflecting a 4.5% price raise over the last 24 hours. According to CoinGecko data, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has lost its value by approximately 29% on a monthly basis.

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView