Bitcoin’s recent slide had investors squinting at the charts and asking the same blunt question: correction or crash? Prices have fallen sharply, but some market observers still see it as a deep pullback as part of a longer-term uptrend. Others warn that the data points to something colder.
Price drops and demanding numbers
According to CryptoQuant by XWIN Research analysisBitcoin has fallen about 46% from a peak near $126,000 and is currently trading around $67,900 after five consecutive months of losses.
The Fear and Greed Index takes 14th place – the reading is titled Extreme Fear. Reports show that net realized losses recently reached more than $13 billion, a level consistent with the worst of the crisis in 2022.
In 2024, inflows of approximately $10 billion helped boost market capitalization. Then in 2025, more than $300 billion flowed in while the overall market value declined. This strange combination of enormous capital inflows and falling market capitalization suggests that there is more pressure to sell than to make fresh purchases.
How rising prices mask a peaceful change in Bitcoin’s structure
“The base case is that Bitcoin may already be entering winter, with higher prices and a stronger structure delaying appreciation.” – By @xwinfinance
Read more ⤵️https://t.co/7soxNoBhqi pic.twitter.com/fEsSXpAmuK
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 11, 2026
Capital flows and price actions
Reports show that the most awkward fact for bulls is capital flows. The money flowed in, but the value dropped. Who was selling to this demand? Large holders, securities traders or intricate derivatives traders could take profits or hedge positions.
The data itself doesn’t name the seller, but the pattern is a red flag. Chain measurements also show realized gains shrinking, even though prices have remained well above the levels of the previous bear era. Over time, this leads to a weakening of the internal market power.
Sentiments and historical echoes
Some investors point to a memory gap: high nominal prices make the pain less painful. People do not want to relive the chaos of 2022. Reports say that the launch of spot ETFs and deeper institutional access has changed the functioning of the market, which gives many confidence.
However, mood readings under conditions of extreme fear often occur near surrender points. It’s worth remembering that in 2022, realized losses peaked about five months before the market bottom, which means enormous losses could precede the final low by a long time.
Technical patterns and the bigger picture
Bitcoin has recorded four consecutive months of losses and a 41% decline in that stretch – a streak last seen in 2018, not 2022. This pattern is significant because similar sequences have led to long-term declines in the past.
Bitcoin at a crossroads as XWIN signals early signs of crypto winter
For XWIN Research, the message is elementary: price alone does not define the cycle. What matters is who is buying, who is selling, and whether demand can absorb supply without reducing market value.
That balance looks tight at the moment. Until inflows begin to translate into sustained market capitalization gains and realized losses cold significantly, the company believes the market should be approached with caution rather than optimism. Winter it may not have fully sunk in, but the data shows that the temperature is clearly dropping.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
