As most of the cryptocurrency market retests key levels, Ethereum (ETH) is trying to regain major horizontal territory. Some market observers have warned that the cryptocurrency could plunge to recent lows if the price does not recover soon.

Weekly Ethereum up close

Ethereum fell 1.4% on Thursday to retest a key area for a second straight day. After hitting a 10-month low of $1,747, the altcoin king has rebounded by more than 15% and has traded between $2,000 and $2,150 over the past few days.

However, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization failed to hold the key $2,000 horizontal barrier on Wednesday and tested the $1,900 mark for the first time in a week.

After attempting to reclaim a key psychological level in the early hours of Thursday, Ethereum was rejected towards recent lows, briefly falling below it. Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted the importance of the current ETH zone as it has previously triggered huge moves.

According to him, if the altcoin fails to regain the $2,000 area in the coming days, a full return to recent lows should be expected soon. Similarly, Crypto Busy market observer excellent that the cryptocurrency is currently trading above major long-term support.

According to the post, the recent correction has pushed Ethereum towards a three-year rising support line that will “determine the next big move.” The analyst warned that “If the trendline is broken with a strong weekly close below $1,900, the structure will weaken.”

Therefore, ETH must maintain its current levels in the coming days to avoid a weekly close below this level. Otherwise, its price may fall “to further liquidity pockets around $1,600 and perhaps $1,300, where further historical support zones exist.”

Will the “real” ETH bull market take place in two years?

Trader AlejandroXBT shared a potential macro outlook for Ethereum that suggests the cryptocurrency could yet experience another major shock:

My thesis is that the major upward move that began around 2019–2020 turned into a huge and long-lasting macro correction and that Ethereum has since been consolidating within this broader corrective structure.

He outlined four phases of macrostructure: pump, correction, shock and moon. The initial phase, which took place in 2019-2021, marked a “true impulsive bullish move” with powerful trend expansion and growing momentum.

According to a market observer, the powerful rally that followed the bear market in 2022 appears to be a “counter-trend move within a broader corrective scope” rather than a renewed bull market and the beginning of a recent long-term cycle.

As he explained, ETH’s range behavior signals distribution and consolidation rather than continuation. “From this perspective, the apparent bullish trend that developed within the correction can be interpreted as a dead bounce, a technically strong bounce occurring within a larger corrective structure,” he said.

Therefore, the current macro structure would suggest that the final phase of the shock may “still be required to fully reset sentiment and liquidity before Ethereum can move into a new impulsive bullish cycle.”

Based on this, the trader predicted an eventual liquidity-driven move lower in the coming months, followed by a “moon” phase, potentially next year, when “the structure suggests conditions for a truly long-term bullish continuation, with price discovery and expansion well above previous highs.”

Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com