Key takeaways:
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BTC open interest declines to $34 billion, but stable BTC-denominated volume suggests demand for leverage remains unchanged.
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Weak U.S. jobs data and a tilt in Bitcoin options point to a bearish shift, even as gold and stocks show relative strength.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to stay above $72,000 over the past week, leading investors to wonder whether institutional demand has evaporated. Total open interest in Bitcoin futures fell to its lowest level since November 2024, fueling fears of a retest of $60,000 support as uncertainty increases.
Total open interest in BTC futures reached $34 billion on Thursday, down 28% from 30 days earlier. However, measured in Bitcoin terms, the rate remains virtually constant at 502,450 BTC, suggesting that demand for leverage has not actually declined. Some of the decline can also be attributed to forced liquidations, which totaled $5.2 billion over the past two weeks.
Weak bullish leverage demand confirms troubling decoupling of the BTC market
Investors are increasingly frustrated by the lack of a clear catalyst for Bitcoin’s 28% decline in value over the past month, especially as gold regained its psychological level of $5,000 and the S&P 500 index was trading just 1% below its all-time high. Some analysts say this risk aversion is due to emerging signs of weakness in the US labor market.
The U.S. Department of Labor revealed on Wednesday that the U.S. economy would add just 181,000 jobs in 2025, a weaker result than previously reported. However, the White House downplayed these concerns. According to the BBC, officials to argue that slowing population growth due to immigration policies has reduced the number of jobs the United States needs to create.
Bitcoin’s record 52% crash on March 13, 2020 occurred at the height of concerns over the Covid-19 pandemic, which predicted a surge in unemployment numbers. If economic growth is currently at risk, it is likely that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner than expected. This reduces the cost of capital for businesses and eases financing conditions for consumers, which explains the stock market strength seen in 2026.
The lack of confidence in Bitcoin is evident through faint demand for bullish leveraged positions, which makes the separation from classic markets even more concerning.
The one-year funding rate for Bitcoin futures has remained below the neutral 12% threshold for the past four months, signaling fear. So even as the indicator has rebounded from the previous week’s negative levels, the bears still have the upper hand. According to Bitcoin options markets, professional investors are still not willing to take the risk of a price drop.
Related: Is this crypto winter different? Key Observers Reassess Bitcoin
The delta value of BTC options on Deribit rose to 22% on Thursday as put (put) instruments traded at a premium. Under normal circumstances, the ratio should be between -6% and +6%, reflecting a balanced up and down risk aversion. This deviation rate last rose in May 2025, after Bitcoin reclaimed the $93,000 level following a retest of $75,000.
While derivatives metrics reflect weakness, the $5.4 billion average daily trading volume in U.S.-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds belies speculation about waning institutional demand. While it’s impossible to predict what will cause buyers to show strength, Bitcoin’s recovery will likely hinge on greater visibility into U.S. labor market conditions.
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