Bitcoin Reacts to US Major Jobs Data as Fed Pause Likelihood Near 95%

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Bitcoin (BTC) saw rapid volatility around Wednesday’s opening on Wall Street as U.S. employment data came in well above expectations.

Key Points:

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  • Bitcoin is trying to pare the day’s losses on stronger U.S. nonfarm payrolls data.

  • Mixed signals cause risky assets to react differently to the numbers.

  • Bitcoin traders remain cautious about the upcoming deeper decline in BTC prices.

Analysis: Fed Rate Pause to ‘Continue’

Data from TradingView saw the price of BTC rise to almost $69,000, which quickly recovered, increasing daily losses to levels above 4% at the time of writing.

BTC/USD Hourly Chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US non-agricultural wages performed significantly better on the day, with 130,000 jobs created in January compared to the expected 55,000.

US Civil Unemployment Data. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Strong labor market data usually means there is less need to cut interest rates – usually a drag on cryptocurrencies and risky assets. At the same time, the reduced probability of recession creates a mixed picture for the performance of risky assets.

Accordingly, the S&P 500 Index initially gained 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.6%, after which both indexes reversed their movements.

Precious metals prices also saw choppy action, with gold hitting recent February highs before returning to gains with target support at $5,000.

Four-hour chart of XAU/USD. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Reaction, resource trading Kobeissi’s letter additionally referred to the decline in unemployment, forecasting that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at its March meeting.

“The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, below expectations of 4.4%. This was an overall much better employment report than expected,” the report said. he wrote in the post on X.

“Fed pause will continue.”

Probability of Fed target rates at March FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

The latest data from the CME Group FedWatch tool estimates the risk of a March interest rate pause at over 90%.

Attention now turns to Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for further guidance on the path of inflation.

The trader notes that the BTC price is “slowly falling” towards $50,000

Commenting on BTC’s recent price action, investors were not impressed and headed towards recent declines.

Related: BTC Traders Wait for $50,000 Low: Five Things to Know About Bitcoin This Week

Daan Crypto Trades has hit the Fibonacci retracement levels of $64,569, $62,474 and $59,805 while keeping an eye on the potential for a deeper retracement.

“Overall quite a weak result after the initial rebound. The bulls failed to break above the $72,000 level and instead the price collapsed again.” summarized.

“Unless ~$68K can be recovered, Fib retracement levels should be watched in the short term.”

One-hour chart of the BTC/USDT perpetual contract. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Cointelegraph previously reported that $69,000 is a key long-term target, with the risk of an extended range environment developing around this level currently higher.

BTC’s $50,000 low price targets also held, with trader Jelle arguing that BTC/USD is “exactly copying the 2022 bear market trajectory.”

“I would see a relatively slow decline towards the low $50,000s and then a rebound higher if things continue to develop,” he said. he said X followers

“A lot of people are talking about buying there. I wonder if they will do it if the price gets there.”

BTC/USD 2022 chart fractal. Source: Jelle/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide right and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information contained in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph is not liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

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