On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the number of nonfarm payrolls (NFPs) in the United States (US) increased by 130,000 in January. This reading followed an augment of 48,000 (adjusted from 50,000) recorded in December and was above market expectations of 70,000.
Join our live coverage of US NFP data and market reaction.
Other details of the report showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%, while the labor force participation rate rose to 62.5% from 62.4%. Finally, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in average hourly earnings, held steady at 3.7% compared to market expectations of 3.6%.
“The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised down by 15,000, from +56,000 to +41,000, and the change for December was revised down by 2,000, from +50,000 to +48,000. After these adjustments, employment in November and December combined is 17,000 lower than previously reported,” the BLS noted in its release press release.
Additionally, the BLS announced changes to employment data in 2025 after finalizing its annual benchmark revisions:
“The seasonally adjusted level of total non-farm employment in March 2025 was revised down by 898,000. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the total level of non-farm employment in March 2025 was revised down by 862,000, or -0.5%. Without seasonal adjustment, the absolute average revision of the benchmark over the previous 10 years is 0.2 percent. Change in total sector employment non-agricultural in 2025 was adjusted from +584,000 to +181,000.”
Market reaction to non-agricultural employment data
Thanks to the immediate reaction, the US dollar (USD) gained strength against its main rivals. At the time of this publication, the USD index increased by 0.35% during the day, reaching 97.23.
Today’s US dollar price
The table below shows the current percentage change of the United States Dollar (USD) against the major listed currencies. The US dollar was strongest against the Swiss franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | BOOR | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.52% | 0.24% | 0.15% | 0.32% | -0.12% | 0.28% | 0.65% | |
| EUR | -0.52% | -0.28% | -0.33% | -0.20% | -0.61% | -0.24% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.24% | 0.28% | -0.08% | 0.08% | -0.34% | 0.03% | 0.42% | |
| JPY | -0.15% | 0.33% | 0.08% | 0.13% | -0.31% | 0.09% | 0.47% | |
| BOOR | -0.32% | 0.20% | -0.08% | -0.13% | -0.43% | -0.04% | 0.33% | |
| AUD | 0.12% | 0.61% | 0.34% | 0.31% | 0.43% | 0.39% | 0.76% | |
| NZD | -0.28% | 0.24% | -0.03% | -0.09% | 0.04% | -0.39% | 0.37% | |
| CHF | -0.65% | -0.14% | -0.42% | -0.47% | -0.33% | -0.76% | -0.37% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select the US dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The following section was published as a preview of US nonfarm payrolls data at 05:00 GMT.
- Employment in the non-agricultural sector is expected to augment by 70,000 in January.
- The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.4%.
- The jobs report could impact the Fed’s policy outlook and the valuation of the US dollar.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release delayed nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data for January on Wednesday at 1:30 p.m. GMT.
Volatility around the US dollar (USD) is likely to augment following the jobs report, with investors looking for novel insights into the future path of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on interest rates.
What can you expect from the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?
Early last week, the BLS said it had postponed the release of the official jobs report, originally scheduled for Friday, due to the partial government shutdown. After the House of Representatives adopted the package ending the lockdown on Tuesday, the agency announced that it would publish labor market data on Wednesday, February 11.
Investors expect an augment in NFP by PLN 70,000. after an augment of 50 thousand recorded in December. Over this period, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%, while annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in average hourly earnings, is expected to fall to 3.6% from 3.8%.
Reviewing the jobs report, TD Securities analysts note that they expect job growth in January to remain modest and augment by 45,000.
“We expect the private sector to add 40,000 and the government to add 5,000. We expect the strength of the private sector to be concentrated in health care and construction. We expect the unemployment rate to show further signs of stabilization, remaining at 4.4%. The low-employment and low-employment labor market remains. Average hourly earnings are likely to have increased by 0.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y,” they add.
How will the September information on non-farm payrolls in the US affect EUR/USD?
The USD started the month on solid footing as markets reacted to the nomination of Kevin Warsh, who served as Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, as the novel Fed chairman. Meanwhile, the US dollar also benefited from increased volatility in precious metals prices, especially silver and gold, and stock markets. In turn, the USD index, which measures the valuation of the USD against a basket of six major currencies, increased by 0.5% in the first week of February.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook said earlier this month that she believed the labor market would continue to be supported by last year’s interest rate cuts. Cook further noted that the labor market has stabilized and is approximately in balance, adding that policymakers continue to pay close attention to the potential for rapid change. Similarly, Governor Philip Jefferson argued that the labor market was likely in equilibrium with a low-employment, low-employment environment.
CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that markets currently price the probability of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut in March at around 15%. In the event that the NFP reading disappoints, with a print below 30,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rises, the US dollar could immediately come under pressure, opening the door to a higher note on EUR/USD. On the other hand, the number of NFPs at or above market expectations may confirm another continuation of the policy next month. The market position suggests that the US dollar has some room for advantage in this scenario.
Investors will also pay particular attention to the report’s element regarding wage inflation. If average hourly earnings augment less than expected, it may be tough for the US dollar to gain strength even if the NFP headline is close to the market forecast.
Danske Bank analysts argue that milder wage growth may negatively impact consumer activity and pave the way for dovish actions by the Fed.
“The Challenger report showed more layoffs in January than expected, and the number of job openings for JOLTs in December was 6.5 million (consensus 7.2 million). As a result, the U.S. job openings-to-unemployment ratio fell to just 0.87 in December. Such a cooling is usually a good predictor of weakening wage growth and can be a concern for private consumption prospects, and all else being equal, it supports the case for early Fed cuts,” they explain.
Eren Sengezer, Chief Analyst of the European Session at FXStreet, presents a miniature technical forecast for EUR/USD:
“The relative strength index (RSI) indicator remains above 50 on the daily chart and EUR/USD is hovering above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) after testing this dynamic support last week, reflecting buyers’ desire to maintain control.”
“On the other hand, 1.2000 (round level, psychological level) marks the next resistance ahead of 1.2080 (January 27 high) and 1.2160 (static level). Looking south, the first key support level can be seen at 1.1680, where the 100-day SMA is located, ahead of 1.1620-1.1600 (200-day SMA, Fibonacci retracement 23.6% uptrend from January 2025 to January 2026).A decisive drop below this support area could attract technical sellers and open the door to a longer decline.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two missions: achieving price stability and promoting full employment. The basic tool for achieving these goals is adjusting interest rates. When prices rise too swift and inflation exceeds the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US dollar (USD) because it makes the United States a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the unemployment rate becomes too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which will negatively impact the dollar.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, during which the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. Twelve Fed officials attend the FOMC meeting – seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional reserve bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may exploit a policy called quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed significantly increases the flow of credit in the gridlocked financial system. This is an unusual policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. This was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more dollars and using them to buy high-quality bonds from financial institutions. QE tends to weaken the US dollar.
Quantitative Tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, in which the Federal Reserve stops purchasing bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest capital from the bonds it holds at maturity to purchase novel bonds. This is usually positive for the value of the US dollar.
