Ethereum has reached a zone usually associated with massive selling, with the MVRV Z-Score returning -0.42 – although analysts are divided on whether Ether’s price is near a low.
The MVRV Z-Score is a metric used to assess whether a crypto asset is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market value to realized value, which reflects the total value of Ether based on the price at which the last transaction occurred.
The metric was created to identify periods of market euphoria or capitulation when market value was significantly higher or lower than realized value.
CryptoQuant analyst and Alpharactal founder and CEO Joao Wedson he said the result “shows that Ethereum is indeed going through a clear process of capitulation.”
However, the analyst said the data “does not compare to the intensity” seen at the major bear market lows in 2018 and 2022.
The all-time low was -0.76, recorded in December 2018, Wedson said.
Further ETH price disadvantages possible
The analyst warned that further declines will be possible before a significant recovery occurs.
“The market is already under pressure, but historically speaking there is still room for further declines before a final structural bottom is formed,” he said.
Ether has fallen 30% over the past two weeks, hitting a bear market low of $1,825 on Friday before recovering slightly to $2,100 on Monday.
Related: Tom Lee points to lack of leverage and gold ‘swirl’ as the reason for Ether’s 21% decline.
HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun told Cointelegraph that historically, Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score “has proven to be a highly reliable indicator for tracking subsequent market movements, particularly in identifying low zones over multiple cycles.”
“Judging by on-chain activity, protocol evolution and long-term ecosystem structure, Ethereum’s fundamentals have not seen any significant deterioration. On the contrary, they continue to improve in several key dimensions,” he said.
However, it is premature to conclude that Ether has finished bottoming out as long as the main factors responsible for the current decline persist, he added.
“Given the potential liquidity constraints associated with the upcoming April tax season, the likelihood of further price declines remains a significant factor.”
One of the best “buy fear” windows for Ether
Other market commentators, such as MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe, were slightly more bullish, stating“I think this is a huge opportunity to look at ETH.”
“The main reason is that there is a huge gap with the ‘fair price’,” he said, referring to the MVRV rate.
Ether is as undervalued today as it was during the April 2025 crash, the June 2022 post-Terra/Luna crash low, the March 2020 Covid crash, and the December 2018 bear market.
“In all of these cases, it represented a huge opportunity to buy this particular asset.”
Andri Fauzan Adziima, head of research at cryptocurrency trading platform Bitrue, told Cointelegraph that negative MVRV zones “have repeatedly preceded sharp recoveries in previous cycles.”
“With continued strong ETH network metrics, this appears to be an excellent long-term setup to accumulate once weak hands are fully emptied,” he said.
“A brutal capitulation right now, but historically one of the best ‘buy fear’ windows for ETH.”
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