Solana SOL (SOL) is down 38% in the last 30 days, hitting a two-year low of $67 on Friday. Many analysts believe that the declines are not over for the seventh cryptocurrency, which has downside targets as high as $30.

Key takeaways:

• Solana’s head and shoulders pattern assumes a SOL price of $50 or lower.

• MVRV bands indicate a potential bottom, but support at $75 must hold.

Solana targets $42 after bear confirmation

The SOL price has already lost over 72% of its value since the cycle high of around $295 in January 2025. Thus, the SOL price has confirmed a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern on multiple time frames.

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Crypto analyst Bitcoinsensus shared a chart showing SOL confirming BHP’s pattern, pointing to further declines in the future.

“Solana confirmed a breakout from this Head & Shoulders macro format,” Bitcoinsensus he said in Monday’s post on X, adding:

“​​The target could be as low as $50 per SOL dollar.”

“It’s a classic head and shoulders formation with a measured move to $45,” Nextiscrypto analyst he said about the two-week SOL chart. Other analysts, however, say the price could fall even lower.

Pseudonymous analyst “Shitpoastin” said Solana’s price also formed a “massive head and shoulders pattern” on the monthly chart over two years, “with just air to $30.”

Meanwhile, the two-day candlestick chart shows that on January 30, SOL price broke below the H&S neckline at $120.

The measured target of the BHP formula, calculated by adding the head height from the break point, is $57, a 32% decrease from the current level.

Solana’s MVRV teams offer hope for a $75 low

Last week’s SOL price collapse was halted by support at the bottom of the MVRV extreme deviation price ranges, currently at $75.

These bands show when SOL is below or above the average price at which investors have recently moved their coins.

Historically, SOL prices fall to levels near or even below the low of the MVRV band before bottoming out.

This includes the March 2022 rebound when SOL rose 87% in three weeks to $140 after testing the bottom of the MVRV deviation band around $75. A similar rebound occurred earlier in December 2020.

However, Solana’s association with the November 2022 FTX crash resulted in a significant deviation below this band, with the price dropping another 70% and bottoming out around $7 in December of that year.

Therefore, a decline in SOL below $75 initiates the next phase of correction, which will be apparent in 2022, likely consistent with the occupational health and safety target.