Bitcoin (BTC) gained as much as 3% on Sunday, but some investors refused to believe that the BTC price crash was over.
Key Points:
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Bitcoin price comparisons warn that up-to-date macro lows will occur if the 2022 bear market continues.
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The focus is on moving averages and the cost basis of US Bitcoin spot ETFs.
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Analyzes show that the copy of 2022 is not certain.
Bitcoin capitulation ‘hasn’t happened yet’
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD surpassing $71,000, up 20% from Friday’s 15-month lows.
As the weekly close approached, Bitcoin added its characteristic volatility, while market participants remained highly skeptical about the durability of the rebound.
Uploading chart to X comparing the current BTC price action with the bear market in 2022, independent analyst Filbfilb did not have good news for the bulls.
“I’m not going to try to dress it up in any way other than what it looks like,” he commented alongside a chart showing the spot price versus the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) of $95,300.
Analyst Tony Severino had similar views, presenting multiple price metrics and concluding that up-to-date lows are all but guaranteed.
Four more for your prediction https://t.co/psM23MQiI2 pic.twitter.com/Qu0Pt5QeUz
— Tony Severino, CMT (@TonySeverinoCMT) February 8, 2026
“The final capitulation of $BTC has not happened yet,” BitBull trader Agreementlike Filbfilb referring to the year 2022.
“The real bottom will be below $50,000, where most ETF buyers will be underwater.”
US Bitcoin spot funds (ETFs) currently have an average purchase cost of $82,000, per data from the tracking resource Checkonchain.
BTC price deja vu continues
Previously, Cointelegraph reported on a key bear market for Bitcoin based on two other trend lines: the 200-week plain moving average (SMA) and the exponential moving average.
Related: What caused Bitcoin to crash? Three theories behind the BTC drop below 60,000 dollars
Together they create a “cloud” of support worth between $58,000 and $68,000.
In one of his own the latest market trends over the weekend, Caleb Franzen, creator of the Cubic Analytics analytical resource, argued that the spirit of 2022 is also at stake here.
“In May 2022, Bitcoin retested its 200-week MA cloud. The bulls said, ‘That’s it, we have retested the long-term moving average and now we can continue higher.’ The price immediately bounced off this zone, formed a long wick and closed above the middle of the weekly range,” he concluded.
“But then this rally faded… The price returned to the 200W MA cloud a few weeks later, failed to rebound, and then crossed the cloud in June 2022. What do we see now? First retest of the 200W MA cloud with a long wick.”
Franzen notes that the market may not “perfectly” replicate the previous bear market.
“The reality is that no one knows what will happen next,” he admitted.
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