On Thursday, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rebounded slightly from top barrel rates, falling by about $0.95 per barrel, or 1.5%. Oil markets have seen fresh tensions in recent weeks as the United States and Iran circle the negotiating table, and exchanges over threats to cancel production led to a brief surge in barrel offers.
Both the United States and Iran, after making several erratic cancellation threats, confirmed that the two sides would meet on Friday to discuss a variety of topics, including nuclear talks and trade. With both sides unable to be persuaded by anyone in particular to return to the negotiating chairs, energy markets are withdrawing their offers and allowing WTI prices to fall to their lowest levels again.
WTI daily chart
WTI price forecast
On the daily chart, the price of WTI US OIL is USD 63.14. The price is trading above the rising 50-day EMA at $60.27 and the slightly rising 200-day EMA at $62.23, keeping the short-term tone unchanged. The 50-day EMA continues to trend higher towards the 200-day, although there has been no bullish crossover. The tardy stochastic rate cooled to 67.15 after the overbought episode, indicating digesting momentum rather than a trend reversal.
A hold above the 200-day EMA at $62.23 would maintain the uptrend, while a close below could expose a correction towards the 50-day EMA at $60.27. A bounce of the oscillator back above 80 would pave the way for an extension of the trend, while a return to the mid-50s would favor long-term consolidation.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the aid of an AI tool.)
Frequently asked questions about WTI crude oil
WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three main types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low weight and low sulfur content. It is considered a high-quality oil that can be easily refined. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing Junction, considered the “Crossroads of the World.” It is a reference point for the crude oil market, and the WTI price is often quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are key factors influencing the price of WTI crude oil. Therefore, global growth may drive increased demand and, conversely, faint global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Another key factor shaping prices are the decisions of OPEC, the group of major oil-producing countries. The value of the US dollar affects the price of WTI crude oil because oil is mainly sold in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.
Weekly crude oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) influence the price of WTI crude oil. Inventory changes reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate increased demand, which will result in an escalate in the price of oil. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, which causes prices to fall. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA report the next day. Their results are usually similar and are within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIA data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 oil-producing countries that jointly decide on production quotas for member countries at meetings held twice a year. Their decisions often influence the prices of WTI crude oil. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, which will push up oil prices. OPEC increasing production has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
