Bitcoin (BTC) traders see its final support trendline coming into play as part of a novel macro-bottom in BTC price.
Key Points:
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For the first time since overdue 2023, Bitcoin is approaching a long-term trendline retest.
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Weekly moving averages are on the radar as a hedge for BTC prices if the market drops again.
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Market forecasts emphasize investor resilience despite a 40% decline.
200-Week BTC Trendline ‘Should Be Down’
The latest analysis increasingly expects Bitcoin to test its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,400.
After four straight red monthly candles, BTC price is hitting novel downside targets that include levels below $50,000.
Despite falling to its lowest level since overdue 2024 this week, BTC/USD may ultimately be saved by classic support trend lines.
“We are currently trading at Strategy’s cost and we are getting close [to] April lows at 74.4 thousand dollars. If we go below that, the next key level will be 70,000. dollars, which is slightly above the previous ATH of 69 thousand. dollars,” wrote Nic Puckrin, CEO of crypto education resource Coin Bureau. Post X Wednesday.
“A break below this means we are heading towards the bottom of the bear market target. Area to watch at $55.7K – $58.2K. That’s somewhere between the average realized price of all coins and the MA of 200W. That should be the bottom.”
Puckrin referred to the 200-week basic moving average (SMA) that forms a $10,000-wide support band with the equivalent EMA, data from TradingView can be seen.
Meanwhile, Altcoin trader Sherpa said it would “make sense” for the price to drop to at least the 200-week EMA.
on the one hand, it makes sense $BTC reach for EMA with a power of 200 W, an indicator untouched since 2023. It would be approximately 68 thousand.
On the other hand, it is still an engaging level as a 2025 minimum.
Either way, the bottom is closer than we think pic.twitter.com/93DO4s4qlu
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) February 4, 2026
“Every time Bitcoin loses the 100W EMA, it retests the 200W EMA” – BitBull trader further on this topic.
“Currently, the EMA of 200W is $68,000 and it will most likely be retested. Once retested, we will be able to start collecting long-term data.”
Bitcoin investors resist full capitulation
Other market summaries also offer hope for panicked BTC investors.
Related: BTC price returns to 2021: Five things to know about Bitcoin this week
Fresh analysis released Tuesday by Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of crypto asset management firm Bitwise, predicted that the current “crypto winter” will soon end.
“There has been a brutal winter in cryptocurrency retail since January 2025. Institutions have simply covered up this truth for some time for some assets,” he argued, noting that the average “winter” lasted about 14 months.
Cointelegraph further reported on forceful confidence among Bitcoin derivatives traders after falling by over 40%.
Since mid-January, U.S. Bitcoin spot funds (ETFs) have seen net outflows of $3.2 billion, representing just 3% of their total assets under management.
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