Forecast markets have become more bearish on Bitcoin after a weekend sell-off that briefly pushed prices below $75,000 on Monday.
On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $65,000 in 2026. he climbed up to 72% on Monday, on volume of almost $1 million.
Other large bets included bets for BTC to drop below $55,000 and recover $100,000 by the end of the year, with implied probabilities of 61% and 54% respectively.
The surge in relegation bets signals a reversal in sentiment. The market has erased gains made during President Donald Trump’s November 2024 election victory.
The decline was also a significant moment for the strategy of Michael Saylor, the world’s largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin, as prices fell below the average purchase cost for the first time since tardy 2023.
Bear market and decline in liquidity in the US, cited by investors in search of reasons for the sell-off
Some analysts have attributed the recent crypto sell-off to Bitcoin’s broader bearish trend. CryptoQuant reiterated that the bear market has been ongoing since November 2025, when Bitcoin fell below its 365-day moving average.
“Don’t try to find the bottom on your new leg” – Julio Moreno, head of CryptoQuant research, he said in a Saturday post on X, adding: “Bear markets have been building for months.”
Quantum Economics CEO Mati Greenspan said Bitcoin was not designed to boost its price, calling it a secondary effect rather than its primary purpose.
“Its primary use is to provide a form of money independent of governments and banks,” Greenspan wrote in X on Monday.
Separately, Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal linked the downturn to tight U.S. liquidity conditions, rather than cryptocurrency-specific factors.
Bitcoin’s potential price drop below $65,000 this year could contradict forecasts from major investment firms and banks.
Late last year, Grayscale Investments predicted that Bitcoin could surpass a record high of $126,000 by June 2026, citing institutional demand and clearer regulations in the US.
Related: Bitcoin price may have recorded its “deepest pullback” at 77,000. dollars: analyst
Standard Chartered and Bernstein predicted Bitcoin would hit $150,000 in 2026, though both revised earlier, higher targets amid slower inflows into ETFs.
The message came to Polymarket lining Nevada court ruling blocking event deals as unlicensed wagering. Other states, including Tennessee, have also recently targeted the platform for enforcement actions.
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