The fresh Bitcoin price prediction was proposed following a long-term technical analysis shared on social media platform X by cryptocurrency analyst Leshka.eth. The analysis compares Bitcoin’s current structure on a weekly basis to the market peak in 2021, showing how price behavior repeats the same pattern.
Based on Bitcoin’s interaction with the multi-year bullish channel in previous cycles, the analysis proposes a prediction of how Bitcoin could be preparing for a powerful corrective a move that brings the price back to as low as $30,000.
Bitcoin’s weekly structure is about to collapse
Technical analysis Bitcoin’s price action on the weekly candlestick chart shows that the leading cryptocurrency has been trading with higher highs and higher lows since 2018. Interestingly, this trend of higher highs has led to a repeated interaction with the rising resistance trendline that defines each major cycle high.
As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin moves to this upper limit during each bull market, only to be rejected when momentum weakens. These rejection points are clearly marked in many cycles, including the highs in 2017 and 2021. This repeated failure is a hallmark of Bitcoin’s exhaustion macrocycles after a long-term bullish expansion.
Bitcoin re-entered the same long-term trendline when it hit fresh all-time highs in October 2025 before stalling and recovering. Bitcoin’s price failed to stay above the trend line and has since corrected by approximately 30%. The leading cryptocurrency it is currently listed below $90,000and this technical outlook raises the possibility that the current phase-out is not yet complete and may continue.
Bitcoin Weekly Candlestick Chart. Source: @leshka_eth on X
Bitcoin Crash Extension to $30,000?
The chart also shows the depth of previous bear market declines following Bitcoin’s rejection with this long-term structure. After the cycle peak in 2017, Bitcoin fell approximately 84.99% from peak to trough. Following the 2021 high, Bitcoin fell again by approximately 77.47% before bottoming out near the lower boundary of the broader ascending channel.
Based on the current setup, the projected downward move marked on the chart is approximately 72.86%. Applying a drawdown of this size from the last cycle high places Bitcoin’s potential bottom around $30,000.
Interestingly, Grok AI offered a more confident interpretation Bitcoin’s short-term prospects based on answers to questions under the same technical post. According to Grok, aggregate views from sources such as CNBC, Reddit and Forbes suggest that the probability of Bitcoin falling to the $30,000 to $40,000 range is relatively low, estimated at around 15% to 25% based on bear cycle models.
On the other hand, many analysts instead expect higher minimum prices, often over $50,000. Some long term projections stretch $200,000, with names like Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao predicting $200,000 and Tom Lee predicts it will be $250,000 in 2026.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
