Every time I click on the Self-Invested Personal Pension (SIPP) app on my phone, a particular stock stands out like a sore, throbbing red thumb.

This holding company Modern ( NASDAQ:MRNA ), an mRNA vaccine pioneer whose share price fell 45% in 2023, 58% in 2024 and then 29% last year.

But in 2026, it will be like someone flipped a switch. Year-to-date, Moderna is up 73%, making it the second-best performer S&P500 stocks this year. Just SanDiskwhich was also the index’s best-performing stock in 2025, is performing better.

What’s going on with Moderna? Better yet, is this stock worth considering today?

Sales decline

If Moderna sounds like a blast from the past, it’s because of its indelible associations with the global pandemic. More specifically, the mRNA vaccine (Spikevax) that was quickly made available to millions of people around the world.

This single product generated a staggering $19.3 billion in revenue and a net profit of $8.4 billion in 2022. However, sales have since declined, and revenue generated last year was just $1.9 billion (which involved a financial loss).

Naturally, sales always dropped significantly once the pandemic subsides and normality returns. But they are falling much faster than expected, and President Trump’s selection of vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy as health secretary didn’t aid.

Millions of Americans are currently extremely wary of vaccines, especially experimental mRNA vaccines. Research funding was also withdrawn, making investors very distrustful of vaccine manufacturers.

I did not foresee this political development/threat. However, in hindsight, I should have done so because Trump had a history of vaccine skepticism even before his re-election campaign.

Why are stocks rising higher?

That said, I didn’t invest in Moderna just because of the Covid vaccine. I did this because I thought there was a good chance that cutting-edge mRNA technology could be applied to other diseases, including cancer.

Recent developments have caused the company’s shares to skyrocket. Because Moderna and partner Merck announced that their experimental personalized vaccine reduces the risk of death or recurrence of melanoma by 49% five years after starting treatment.

This was consistent with data published in 2023 and obviously bodes well for future Phase 3 data as well as Moderna’s remaining eight mid- and late-stage trials in bladder, kidney and lung cancer.

Cases of melanoma, which is the most stern form of skin cancer, are increasing around the world. Analysts in Jefferies they believe this cancer vaccine could generate multi-billion dollar peak sales for melanoma alone.

An mRNA flu vaccine should also be approved this year.

High risk stocks

While this sounds invigorating, it’s crucial not to get carried away. Late-stage melanoma data are not expected until tardy 2026 at the earliest, and successful Phase III clinical trials are never guaranteed.

Meanwhile, Moderna is investing heavily in its enormous pipeline and does not expect to break even on cash flow until 2028.

Another thing worth mentioning is that there was significant brief selling of the stock prior to this news, so we could be witnessing an unsustainable brief session. Investors should therefore be cautious when chasing growth in these stocks.

Moderna’s potential is significant, but so are its risks, and it could take many years for its promises to translate into actual profits. I’m not selling my shares, but I’m not buying any more of them either.