Australia will release its December monthly jobs report on Thursday at 0:30 GMT, with market participants expecting a moderate recovery in the labor market. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is expected to report that 30,000 modern jobs have been created in the country this month, with the unemployment rate forecast at 4.4%, down from 4.3% recorded in November. The participation rate is 66.8%, which is practically unchanged compared to the previous 66.7%.
The ABS reports both full-time and part-time positions as part of the monthly employment change. Generally, a full-time job involves working 38 or more hours per week, usually comes with benefits, and usually provides a steady income. On the other hand, part-time employment usually means a higher hourly wage but lacks consistency and benefits. That’s why the economy prefers full-time work. In November, Australia gained 35,200 part-time positions but lost a whopping 56,500 full-time positions.
Australia’s unemployment rate is expected to rise in December
However, on financial markets it is not about macroeconomic data, but about the decision of US President Donald Trump. Risk aversion dominates financial boards amid escalating tensions between Trump and Europe over Greenland. The US president wants to take over the territory of Denmark, even offering to buy it. Trump claims that the US needs it to better defend its territory, but it is worth noting that Greenland is prosperous in infrequent earth elements. Due to Denmark’s refusal to give up its territory, Trump threatened several Nordic countries with modern tariffs, adding that they would boost them over time until an agreement is reached to buy Greenland.
He also threatened France with fees, though for a different reason: Trump proposed the creation of a Peace Council, a U.S.-led organization that aims to “promote stability, restore reliable and lawful government, and ensure lasting peace in areas affected by or at risk of conflict.” Countries that want to join the organization must pay $1 billion. French leader Emmanuel Macron has doubts about joining, arguing that the role of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is to work for peace. As a result, US President Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 200% on French wines and champagne.
As a result, the price of gold has surged to record levels amid a flight to safety, which in turn is boosting demand for the Australian dollar (AUD).
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet on February 3 and announce its first monetary policy decision this year. The central bank has left the official interest rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.6% since reaching that level in August 2025, and a December statement indicated that policymakers were concerned about both employment and inflation.
“In terms of considerations for monetary policy decisions, members highlighted three assessments that were central to their decisions at this meeting: first, the extent to which aggregate demand exceeds potential supply and the implications of this for the persistence of the recent increase in inflation, second, the prospects for growth in labor demand and economic activity, and, third, whether financial conditions remain restrictive.”
However, Australia’s latest employment data has been disappointing overall, pointing to a relaxed labor market. In this sense, the RBA may see some relief, but inflation remains a concern: annual domestic inflation fell to 3.4% in November 2025 from 3.8% in October, still above the RBA’s target of 2-3%.
Given this bigger picture, Australia’s monthly jobs report is likely to give the Australian dollar (AUD) an additional boost against its US rival, especially if the report is in line with or better than expected.
When will the Australian jobs report be released and what impact might it have on AUD/USD?
The ABS December jobs report will be published early on Thursday morning. As previously mentioned, the Australian economy is expected to create 30,000 modern jobs this month, while the unemployment rate is forecast at 4.4%. Market participants will also pay attention to the division of positions into full-time and part-time.
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The AUD/USD pair is trading near a recent high at levels last seen in October 2024, approaching the 0.6800 level ahead of the Australian jobs data release, supported by continued risk aversion. The pair may appear overbought in the near term, but there is no reason for the US dollar to strengthen, so declines are likely to attract buyers as long as the gloomy mood persists “
Bednarik adds: “The real resistance comes at 0.6830, on the way to the 0.6870 price zone. Gains beyond the latter are unlikely purely on the back of the jobs report, although the pair could continue to rise if risk sentiment deteriorates. A decline in AUD on the dismal jobs report should lead to a decline towards the 0.6700 level, where buyers will likely emerge to add longs again.”
Employment FAQs
Conditions on the labor market are a key element in assessing the condition of the economy, and thus a key factor influencing currency valuation. High employment or low unemployment has a positive impact on consumer spending and therefore economic growth, increasing the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill vacant positions – may also have an impact on inflation levels and therefore monetary policy, as low labor supply and high demand lead to higher wages.
The pace of wage growth in the economy is of key importance to decision-makers. High wage growth means households have more money to spend, which usually leads to higher prices for consumer goods. Unlike more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage increases are seen as a key element of underlying and sustained inflation because increases are unlikely to be reversed. When deciding on monetary policy, central banks around the world pay particular attention to wage growth data.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks have explicit labor market powers beyond controlling inflation. For example, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mission: promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the sole task of the European Central Bank (ECB) is to keep inflation under control. Still, despite all the mandates it has, labor market conditions are an significant factor for policymakers, given their importance as an indicator of the health of the economy and their direct link to inflation.
Economic indicator
Unemployment rates are
Unemployment rate published by the Municipality Australian Bureau of Statisticsis the number of unemployed people divided by the total civilian labor force, expressed as a percentage. If the indicator increases, it indicates a lack of expansion in the Australian labor market and a weakness of the Australian economy. A decline in this value is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while an boost is seen as bearish.
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