Bitcoin (BTC) could reclaim $100,000 as support and rise to $107,000 in the coming days on a combination of supportive technical and fundamental indicators.
Key conclusions: :
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Bitcoin’s breakout is gaining ground, supported by bullish technical data and easing selling pressure.
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The macro signals a bullish rally, an escalate in liquidity, and a divergence between BTC and gold.
The rising triangle, bullish cross increases the chances of a BTC rally
Earlier this week, Bitcoin confirmed its breakout from its multi-week bullish triangle and entered a textbook post-breakout retest phase.
After breaking through the upper boundary of the pattern near $95,000, BTC retreated to retest previous resistance as support before bouncing higher, a move typically associated with legitimate breakouts rather than false moves.
Maintaining this recovered level maintains “a real breakthrough” structure is intact and maintains the pattern’s measured upside target near $107,000, calculated by adding the maximum triangle height to the February breakout point.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s daily chart approached a potential bullish crossover between the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) exponential moving average (EMA).
The last time BTC printed a similar bullish cross, BTC’s price rose by approximately 17% over the next month, strengthening the case for the trend to continue if the signal is confirmed.
Long-term Bitcoin holders are limiting sales
Bitcoin’s breakout gained credibility as selling pressure from long-term holders continued to fade.
Data tracking UTXO issued by holders of OG Bitcoin, a coin that has been dormant for over five years, showed that distribution to recent local highs has slowed significantly.
In January, the 90-day average released production peaked near 2,300 BTC at the beginning of the cycle, but later dropped to the 1,000 BTC level, suggesting that fewer coins are entering the market.
Earlier in the rally, OG sales surged to levels well above the previous bull market, reflecting the extremely attractive exit window created by spot ETF demand, greater liquidity and institutional participation.
“This suggests that OGs have also slowed sales.” he said DarkFrost analyst adds:
“Their selling pressure, which can be enormous at times, has clearly decreased, and the prevailing trend now appears to be leaning more toward holding than distribution.”
The slowdown in OG sales also coincided with the largest net outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges since December 2024.
Negative Bitcoin-Gold Correlation: Bullish for BTC?
Another macro signal consistent with the breakout thesis comes from Bitcoin’s historical relationship with gold.
In previous instances when BTC’s correlation with gold turned negative, Bitcoin rose by an average of 56% in about two months. The one exception, which occurred in May 2021, was due to external shocks, including China’s mining crackdown and forced deleveraging.
From 2026, the situation appeared more favorable, supported by increasing global liquidity and the end of quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve.
Related: Bitcoin ‘groove’ to return despite gold, Nasdaq spotlight: Arthur Hayes
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