Forecasting for the coming week: Inflation is crucial for the currency market

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The US dollar (USD) lacked momentum this week amid geopolitical and local uncertainty. On the one hand, US President Donald Trump continued to threaten Iran with military interventions, but at the end of the week he softened his tone, noting, however, that all options were still being considered. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is struggling due to its lawsuit against Chairman Jerome Powell, which is why the dollar remains unattractive to investors.

USD Index: The US Dollar Index (DXY) ended the week with modest gains and is hovering near 99.30, hitting a monthly high.

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On the data side, next week the U.S. will release the four-week ADP average of changes in employment, unemployment claims and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for October and November, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

Today’s US dollar price

The table below shows the current percentage change of the United States Dollar (USD) against the major listed currencies. The US dollar was strongest against the Australian dollar.

USD EUR GBP JPY BOOR AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.02% -0.10% -0.41% 0.11% 0.17% -0.28% -0.22%
EUR 0.02% -0.09% -0.39% 0.13% 0.19% -0.25% -0.20%
GBP 0.10% 0.09% -0.30% 0.22% 0.28% -0.17% -0.11%
JPY 0.41% 0.39% 0.30% 0.55% 0.59% 0.14% 0.20%
BOOR -0.11% -0.13% -0.22% -0.55% 0.04% -0.41% -0.34%
AUD -0.17% -0.19% -0.28% -0.59% -0.04% -0.45% -0.38%
NZD 0.28% 0.25% 0.17% -0.14% 0.41% 0.45% 0.06%
CHF 0.22% 0.20% 0.11% -0.20% 0.34% 0.38% -0.06%

The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select the US dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.1620 price zone, losing some value at the end of the week. The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) for the euro area and the core HICP are due to be published on Monday. On Tuesday, the German producer price index will be published together with the ZEW survey, both for Germany and the euro zone.

GBP/USD: GBP/USD is trading near 1.3400, seeing significant movement during the week but ending on a composed note. The UK Producer Price Index (PPI) and headline PPI outputs will be published on Tuesday along with the Retail Prices Index.

USD/JPY: USD/JPY is trading near the 158.00 price zone, ending the week with little movement as investors fear the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) upcoming monetary policy decision next Friday.

USD/CAD: The USD/CAD pair is trading near the 1.3910 price zone, ending the week on a subdued note ahead of Monday’s release of the Bank of Canada (BoC) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Core CPI.

Gold: The XAU/USD pair is trading at $4,620, having reached an all-time high of $4,643 earlier this week.

Anticipating the economic outlook: votes in Davos

  • The President of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Martin Schlegel, will open the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday.
  • The President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, will speak on Wednesday and Friday.
  • On Wednesday, US President Trump will deliver a speech.
  • The ECB’s Joachim Nagel will speak on Wednesday.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings/communications aimed at shaping monetary policy

  • China’s GDP, industrial production and retail sales on Monday.
  • BoC Core Consumer Price Index and Canadian CPI on Monday.
  • Employment data in Great Britain will be published on Tuesday.
  • The UK CPI will be published on Wednesday along with the PPI.
  • Australian employment data will be released early on Thursday morning.
  • GDP and PCE data in the US will be published on Thursday.
  • New Zealand’s CPI will be released on Thursday.
  • The BOJ’s interest rate decision and monetary policy statement will be published on Friday.

(This story was corrected Jan. 16 at 18:02 GMT to date for upcoming speeches at the World Economic Forum in Davos and macroeconomic report releases.)

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