Ether (ETH) is trading near $3,300, and one trend in the futures market is pointing to another 10-25% upward move. However, before a sustained price boost occurs, the market may first experience a price decline due to liquidation.

Key takeaways:

• Ether’s leverage ratio is near 0.60, a level that has historically preceded gains ranging from 10% to 25% after low pullbacks.

• ETH’s SOPR remains below 1, indicating that realized losses continue to outweigh gains despite recent price increases.

Ether’s leverage setup favors growth after a low cleanup

Crypto analyst Pelin Ay highlighted repeating structure of Ether leverage dynamics. When the Leverage Ratio surges above the price on Binance, it leads to short-term declines that wipe out over-leveraged long positions, followed by forceful upward reactions.

In 2025, this pattern appeared multiple times, especially in February, April, September and November. A similar sequence occurred in October, when a acute jump in leverage caused a sudden decline before the trend continued.

Currently, the leverage ratio is close to 0.60, which is a relatively increased value. It is worth noting that leverage is not decreasing despite recent price increases, which signals continued risk appetite. Pullbacks at these leverage levels preceded gains of 10% to 25%, suggesting that Ether may still be positioning itself for a acute move higher after the final liquidity spike.

Meanwhile, Glassnode analyst Sean Rose excellent discrepancy in the behavior of ETH holders. Despite Ether outperforming Bitcoin since January lows, ETH’s profit-to-mining ratio remains below 1, indicating that aggregate losses outweigh gains. This suggests weaker belief among ETH spot holders compared to BTC participants.

Related: Short Squeeze Hits Top 500 Cryptocurrencies as Investors Abandon Bearish Bets

Data suggests that ETH’s decline is overdue

Ether recorded its highest daily close since November 12, 2025 at $3,324. A 25% boost from here would place ETH above $4,100, but the likelihood of a diminutive decline remains elevated.

On the daily chart, during the last impulse, Ether formed an order block between $3,050 and $3,170. This zone coincides with the control point in the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP), an indicator highlighting the price level that has seen the most trading volume since September 2025.

The price may return to this level because it represents the area of ​​fair value where the buyer and seller previously agreed on a price.

Supporting this view, Hybrid data shows net long concentration above $500 million in the $3,040 to $3,100 range. This dense positioning increases the likelihood of a short-term move into this range, potentially setting the stage for a stronger continuation move later.

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