The Bitcoin derivatives market is showing signs of a reset after a speculative 2025, with interest in Binance open exchanges down more than 31% from its October peak as futures-based selling pressure declines, which often coincides with significant cycle lows, according to CryptoQuant specialist Darkfost.

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“To put this into perspective, during the previous bull cycle in November 2021, when Bitcoin reached its ATH, Binance’s open interest peaked at $5.7 billion,” Darkfost wrote. “In other words, OI almost tripled in 2025. Since that peak, open interest has declined by more than 31%, now stabilizing at around $10 billion.”

Darkfost described the move as a phase of deleveraging that intensified in the face of “massive liquidations” as OI fell below its 180-day moving average, which the analyst said has historically been more significant than the level of leverage itself.

“These deleveraging periods are crucial because they help remove excessive leverage accumulated in the market,” Darkfost wrote. “Historically, they have often marked significant bottoms, effectively resetting the market and creating a stronger foundation for a potential bullish recovery.”

The logic is elementary: once leverage is enforced, the market may become less susceptible to cascading liquidations and knee-jerk selling. In this sense, a lower OI environment may reduce the marginal impact of spot futures positioning, at least compared to late-stage “crowded trading” conditions that precede acute declines.

However, Darkfost cautioned that a deleveraging signal is not the same as a confirmed bottom. “This could happen again, but caution is warranted,” the analyst wrote, adding that if Bitcoin “continues to decline and fully enters a bear market,” OI could “contract even further,” pointing to “deeper deleveraging and a potential extension of the correction.”

Bitcoin sellers are losing momentum

In addition to the reset of open interest, Darkfost pointed to a acute decline in futures-based selling pressure using Net Taker volume, a measure intended to capture who dominates the futures order books.

“BTC selling pressure from the futures market is rapidly decreasing,” Darkfost wrote, noting that after the monthly average peaked at “-$489 million,” the number has now been “divided by ten.” “At the moment, sellers continue to slightly dominate the order books with -$51 million,” the analyst added.

The key nuance is that the indicator has not reversed, but is moving in that direction. “We’re not back in positive territory yet, but we’re getting closer,” Darkfost wrote. “It is very encouraging to see investors starting to change their approach, especially given the significant impact of futures volumes on price action. It is worth noting that since selling pressure began to decline, BTC price action has also stabilized.”

To turn the “bottom thesis” into a more decisive reversal call, Darkfost anchored the trigger in this sign change: “If Net Taker volume turned positive again, this would clearly light the fuse for a bullish reversal.”

At the time of publication, the BTC price was $95,131.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com