Dogecoin’s price is currently up about 17% from its December 31 low, and the bounce is starting to look less like a dead cat bounce and more like a regime change, according to cryptocurrency analyst Cantonese Cat, who points to a clear shift in the way DOGE trades within Bollinger Bands on the daily chart.

The setup matters now because price has moved from the lower band pressure months to the upper half of the range, which is often the earliest indication that trend behavior is changing.

The latest daily view of Cantonese Cat (Binance) shows movement based on Bollinger Band positioning rather than following a pattern. How – the analyst put it: “The DOGE log shows a clear change in trend, which is easy to spot when you see it moving in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands for months, but now it has a clear change in character.”

This “character” can be seen in the team’s mechanics. In the print shown, DOGE closed around $0.1405 and is currently trading above its 20-day baseline near $0.1348 after spending most of the previous stretch in the lower half of the envelope. The upper band is near $0.1564 and the lower band is near $0.1132.

From an analyst’s perspective, the baseline becomes a short-term “line in the sand” to determine whether this is a true trend reversal or simply a fading expansion in volatility. Holding above this level keeps price in the upper half of the bands, where trends typically behave differently than during rallies in the lower bands.

The weekly and monthly chart confirm the thesis

When zoomed out, the weekly chart of the Cantonese Cat (December 20) shows the broader structure as an Elliott-style sequence: a full advance in Wave 1, followed by a correction in Wave 2. The analyst wrote: “We have already had a 13-month bear market for DOGE, with my working hypothesis being that it is likely a Wave 2 correction before a Wave 3 explosion. The only reason this could happen is because it doesn’t seem likely right now and you want for me to stop posting.”

The levels on the chart are clear. DOGE is trading between the 0.382 retracement level near $0.1177 and the 0.5 level near $0.1542, with higher retracement markers around $0.2021 (0.618), $0.2477 (0.707), $0.2968 (0.786), and $0.3732 (0.886).

Above the 1.0 level, it is marked near $0.4844, with extensions reaching around $0.9029 (1.272), $1.2497 (1.414), $1.9934 (1.618), $4.7793 (2.0), and $8.9077 (2.272), with the latter consistent with the analyst’s repeated quote “$9 region” target for this cycle.

On January 9, Cantonese Cat compared DOGE’s monthly chart to the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), arguing for the existence of a repeating bull phase rhythm: “DOGE has always been approximately 2-4 months behind IWM in the bull phase.”
The comparison highlights previous cases where IWM breakout behavior preceded major phases of DOGE growth, suggesting that the current DOGE improvement could be read as a delayed echo if the template holds.

Overall, the near-term question is whether DOGE will be able to maintain trading above the daily Bollinger base (~$0.1348) and avoid returning to the bottom half position that has defined the previous months. On the other hand, a break above the upper band area (~$0.1564) and 0.5 Fib ($0.1542) is crucial for further growth.

At press time, DOGE was trading at $0.13674.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com