Bitcoin (BTC) looks to be a loser against gold as the precious metal hit novel all-time highs on Monday.
Key points:
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The analysis shows that bitcoin is not a failing trade after years of losses against gold.
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As precious metals hit all-time highs, BTC price action failed to recover.
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Gold is starting to attack the S&P 500, potentially changing the narrative of years past if it continues to rally.
BTC Devaluation Trade: ‘The Narrative Is Broken’
New analysis Karel Mercx, an investment specialist at Dutch advisory firm Beleggers Belangen, says Bitcoin has failed as a “devaluation trade.”
Bitcoin fell below 20 ounces in gold terms in early 2026 and is now hovering around two-year lows, according to data from TradingView.
As markets react to the US government’s actions against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, gold and silver prices continue to be exposed while Bitcoin falls.
While bulls are hopeful that BTC/USD will catch up soon, things have long been hanging in the balance for Mercx.
“The verdict is: the downside trade is on gold and silver, not Bitcoin,” X told supporters in a post on Monday.
“Frontal attack on FED sends metals to fresh ATH while BTC is 20% below its peak.”
Mercx disagreed with the view that Bitcoin is an attractive destination for investors seeking shelter from the dilution of the fiat currency supply, also known as devaluation trading.
Despite how Bitcoin compares to “digital gold” compared to bullion, actual capital flows indicate demand for the latter.
“The narrative is broken,” he wrote, adding.
“Investors choose original, hard money over a digital experiment. Book closed.”
The number of obituaries related to the Bitcoin price cycle is growing
The sense of urgency continues to grow among cryptocurrency advocates.
Related: Fed rate cuts under fire: 5 things to know about Bitcoin this week
Addressing this topic, cryptocurrency trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe admitted that time may be running out for the market to rebound.
Times are starting to get captivating for everyone involved #Crypt markets.
Gold set a novel all-time record.
Silver set a novel all-time record.My concerns: after this breakout, we really need to accelerate, otherwise we will start falling and the bears… pic.twitter.com/55VsW2UyuT
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 12, 2026
Getting back to the action, cryptocurrency commentator Benjamin Cowen called gold’s performance relative to the S&P 500 “one of the most important charts right now.”
“If the SPX collapses against gold, the environment we have found ourselves in for the last decade will completely change,” he added he arguedreferring to the monthly chart.
In September 2025, Mercx announced that Bitcoin’s four-year price cycle was “dead,” and this narrative continues to gain traction.
“$BTC priced in gold shows that each cycle is weaker than the previous one, and now we have the first loss in 4 years,” he added. he wrote then.
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