Will Diageo’s share price fall again in 2026?

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I was browsing this morning FTSE100 index to discover which stocks rose or fell in 2025. I was saddened to discover that my family portfolio contained the two worst Footsie performers in this category. We bought one of the shares after its price collapsed in April – I hope it is a “fallen angel” business that will turn out to be a revival play. Another loss was caused by, among others, Diageo (LSE: DGE) share prices plummet this year.

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Terrible Diageo

Diageo shares hit a 2025 high at 2,567.5p on January 9. Unfortunately, the share price has plummeted since then. It hit a 2025 low of 1,587p on December 10 before recovering slightly. From top to bottom, this represents a decline of 38.2%.

As I write this, Diageo shares are trading at 1,608p, valuing the global drinks company at £35.6 billion. On December 31, 2001, the share price was 4,036 pence. They have thus fallen by 60.2% from their post-Covid-19 high. Yes.

Moreover, Diageo’s share price fell by 35.6% in one year and by as much as 44.9% in five years. In contrast, the FTSE 100 is up 52% ​​over the last six months, making Diageo shares look terrible.

Delicious dividends

However, the falling share price has resulted in Diageo’s dividend yield being much higher. The company’s stock currently has a dividend yield of 4.9% per year – a level I haven’t seen in the many decades I’ve been following this stock.

Even adding dividends to the above profits leaves Diageo shareholders suffering solemn losses. But, as I often remind myself, buying stock gives me a stake in the company’s future, not its past. But would it really be a intelligent move for me to buy more of this bombed-out FTSE 100 share?

Let me just say that I don’t think the worst is yet over for this giant British business. One problem is that alcohol consumption in the UK this year has fallen to its lowest level since one study began in 1990. Indeed, this year’s alcohol sales are more than a quarter lower than in 2005. This is largely due to moderation among older drinkers, rather than rising abstinence (sobriety).

Of course, nights out with friends are much more exorbitant these days. For adolescent adults, alcohol competes with social media, video games, and legal (and illegal) marijuana for entertainment and play spending. All these trends are negative for Diageo and the like.

Change in 2026?

Another issue is that the group has appointed a up-to-date CEO, Sir Dave Lewis, who starts on January 1. Known as a change expert, Sir Dave will no doubt sink the group’s next set of results. In other words, I expect lots of write-offs and dismal half-year results, due on February 25, 2026.

Finally, one thing that almost 40 years of investing has taught me is to pull the weeds from my portfolio rather than leave them alone. However, since I suspect that the Diageo share price will perform much better in 2026 than this year, I have decided to hold our shares in order to revive the stock. However, any further bad news may mean that I will have to make a huge loss by selling out!

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sadasda

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