Forecasts of the US Stock Exchange Disaster are growing.

. S&P 500 has increased by 19% in the last 12 months, z Nasdaq growing 26%, both near the highest levels. Maybe avoid a potential boom and bust, sticking to the S&P 500? Well, the wonderful 7 actions constitute about one third of the value of this index.

The 14-day relative force indicator S&P 500 has recently affected 76, although today (August 15) it returns to slightly less than 70. Over 70 is often seen as overheating.

I am cautious about the criteria based on charts, so what do the basics say? Berkshire Hathway (Nyse: brk.b) CEO Warren Buffett likes one straightforward measure: total market value divided by GDP.

The values known by investors as the Buffett indicator achieved a record of all time at 212%. Historically, it floats between 90% and 135%, perhaps suggesting that wrestling may be exceeding two times? Eek!

Commentators provide corrections with a strategist Mike Wilson Morgan Stanley Recently, suggesting that 10% immersion may be inevitable. Others are afraid of 15% or more

Berkshire was a net seller of shares from 11 quarters in a row, from USD 344 billion in cash in the balance sheet at the end of the quarter. Should we follow in their footsteps and just sell? Well, I also see intriguing shopping.

Piles contradictory

Berkshire Hathaway bought 5 million shares Unitedhealthareworth nearly USD 1.6 billion. Yes, Unitedhealthare, which attracts the interest of the Department of Justice with various elements of his activities, including the way in which it includes Medicare aspects. And Unitedhealthare, whose shares have dropped by 53% in the last 12 months, because it is in the face of the pressure of the margin and reduced its forecasts earlier in 2025.

Often, Berkshire was in opposition to a wider market. But this is not the only contradictory investor showing interest. Michael Burry’s SCion Asset Management also built a position, just like Discovery Capital.

Berkshire also took part in the steel producer Nucor – Can he take advantage of the tightening of American import restrictions? And bought a house designer Lennar. I don’t know enough yet to consider buying myself, although I am stubborn about builders in Great Britain.

This is one of the ways of approaching a potential stock market. I will look for what conflicting investors buy, who do not want Bulls not want to.

Never perfect

Saying this, Warren Buffett was the first to remind us that he made great mistakes himself. I certainly consider buying Unitedhealthare when it is under regulatory control.

But then Berkshire Hathaway certainly has to consider buying to reject tiny -term fluctuations and focus on a long period. Now “Buffett Premium” disappears – the actions have lost 11%since he announced his ongoing retirement – it can be even better value.

We are still in the face of uncertainty about how investors will admit Greg Abel to the recent CEO – and perhaps a weaker spell for shares. But it’s a pity that I didn’t buy Berkshire every time I considered it before. Or even once.