- Aud/USD retreat in connection with the renovated demand for sheltered mornings before Trump’s tariff term.
- Audaed by the RBA, and the Fed Fed policy is the basis of USD.
- Aud/USD has a stubborn structure, although the shoot disappears near the resistance of the wedge.
The Australian dollar (AUD) weakened on Friday to the American dollar (USD) among the low volume trade session and a tone of risk before the tariff term of the US President Donald Trump.
At the time of writing, Aud/USD floats above 0.6550, with 0.30%of the end -of -ended losses.
The closing of American financial markets for Independence Day led to lighter trade volumes, which caused suppressed variability and more corrective tone on currency markets.
Adding to the bear was weaker than the expected Australian commercial data. Data published on Thursday showed a drop in exports by a 2.7% per May, which caused a narrower commercial surplus.
The tone of risk was observable on Friday before the tariff term of President Trump of July 9.
Trump’s threat to the imposition of tariffs of 10% to 70% on many countries and dictating trade conditions raised concerns about global trade, which prompted sheltered flows and pressure on risk -sensitive currencies.
At the same time, the expectations are approaching that the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) will continue to mitigate monetary policy.
According to the Reuters survey published on Friday, the forceful majority of 37 out of 37 economists expect the Central Bank to implement the third in a row the rate of 25 base rate on Tuesday. This would bring the official money to 3.60%.
This expected movement reflects the RBA response to the moderation of inflation and slowed down the national economy. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (FED) maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, providing support for the American dollar.
Aud/USD technical levels for viewing
From a technical point of view, Aud/USD remains within the growing pattern of the wedge on the daily table, the structure, which often signals the potential exhaustion of the trend. Recent price actions fought for a violation of 0.6590, with many unsuccessful attempts to immaculate this barrier just under a key psychological resistance of 0.6600. This hesitation led to a gentle withdrawal, reflecting the indecision of the market when the stubborn momentum begins to disappear.
Despite the withdrawal, the wider trend remains constructive. The pair still trads above the 50-day interpretation of the movable medium (EMA), currently at 0.6471 and 200-day EMA at 0.6436. This emphasizes the underlying stubborn structure and suggests that the buyers remain under medium -term control.
Daily Aud/USD chart
However, the shoot indicators begin to show early signs of fatigue. The relative force indicator (RSI) has decreased to around 56, compared to earlier ups, which indicates the weakening of the shoot, at the same time persisting above the neutral level 50. It suggests that the stubborn prejudice is still intact, but the shoot is softening.
Confirmed breakthrough above 0.6600 can cause a renovated mountain, potentially opening the door to 78.6% of the recovery of Fibonacci inheritance from September and April to 0.6722.
On the other hand, rejection at current levels can lead to a deeper withdrawal, with initial support observable at 61.8% Fibonaccie near 0.6550. Then there may be a stronger support near 50% withdrawal at 0.6428, which strictly consistent with the 200-day EMA, which increases its technical importance.
Frequently asked risk questions
In the world of financial jargon, two commonly used terms “risk” and “risk” relate to the level of risk that investors are willing to manage in the applied period. humble.
Usually, during “risk” periods of stock market markets will raise, most of the goods-except for gold-will gain value because they benefit from positive development. Currency of nations, which are forceful exporters of goods, strengthen due to increased demand and cryptocurrencies. On the “Risk” market, bonds are growing-especially gigantic government bonds-the gold is shining and sheltered currencies, such as Japanese Jen, Swiss franc and American dollar.
Australian dollar (AUD), Canadian dollar (CAD), New Zealand dollar (NZD) and smaller FX, such as Rubel (Rub) and Rand Rand (ZAR), all tend to raise markets that are “risky”. This is due to the fact that the economies of these currencies are largely dependent on the export of goods for growth, and the goods tend to raise prices during risk periods. This is due to the fact that investors provide for a greater demand for raw materials in the future due to increased business activity.
The main currencies, which tend to grow during periods of “risk”, are the American dollar (USD), Japanese yen (JPy) and the Swiss franc (CHF). American dollar, because it is a global reserve currency, and because in the time of crisis investors they buy a US government debt, which is seen as sheltered, because the largest economy in the world will not guess. Jen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because high percentage is kept by domestic investors who will rather lose them – even in crisis. French Swiss, because the strict Swiss banking regulations offer investors to raise capital protection.
