• The edges of the American dollar higher than expected in June NFP data were expected to boost sentiments, and the temperament fed the expectation of the interest rate.
• In June, the US economy added 147,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%.
• The US – Vietnam trade agreement calms down the nerves, but July 9 emerges with key allies that are still negotiating.

The American dollar (USD) increased higher on Thursday after stronger than the expected data on non -farmed wages (NFP) for June, softened some concerns about the labor market. The hopeful report helped to make green earnings from many years, because traders again assessed the likelihood of reducing the federal reserve rate (FED) in July.

. American dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of Greenback in relation to the basket of six main currencies, rises nearly 97.20 during the American trade session, which means recovery after prior weakness and stopping the multi -day lost series. The reflection took place after the disappointing report on the change in employment ADP. While the ADP data initially driven the expectations of pigeons, the stronger NFP printing helped stabilize the dollar and cooled speculation with an immediate reduction of the Fed rate.

The latest USA Non -Farmy payroll (NFP) The report was stronger than expected, and the economy added 147,000 jobs in June, beating forecasts of 110,000 and slightly above 144,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% in June 2025 from 4.2% in May, opposing the market expectations by 4.3%.

Based on this cautious mood, the American dollar has fallen by more than 10% in the last six months. The American dollar remains sensitive because wider macroeconomic and political uncertainty boost pressure. Finding concerns about the proposed tariffs of US President Donald Trump and an increasingly tender fiscal situation suppressed investors’ trust. The combination of the risk of commercial policy and growing government expenditure drives concerns with long -term economic stability, reducing the need for green.

• Before the tariff date of July 9, the modern trade agreement between the USA and Vietnam helped serene the investor’s nerves, and Washington agreed to alleviate the tariff pressure in exchange for greater access to the market for American goods. The contract covers 20% obligation on Vietnamese exports and 40% tariff to goods redirected by Vietnam from third countries, especially China. In return, Vietnam will reduce the barriers to American goods, allowing some American duty -free products. The agreement, which is softer than the initially proposed 46% general tariff, helped relieve commercial tensions.
• With the upcoming date of July 9, the US pushes key allies – including Japan, South Korea and the European Union – to finalize trade agreements or to face steep modern tariffs, apparently up to 50% on some import. While some negotiations have made progress, others remain uncertain. Japan has pushed himself a lot, and the Prime Minister Shigeru IShiba said that Tokyo “would protect national interests at all costs”, signaling resistance to Washington’s demands. Meanwhile, South Korea President Lee Jae Myung said on Thursday that negotiations look hard and that he cannot say whether the talks will end until the next Tuesday, while German officials encourage quick action to avoid disturbances in essential export sectors. Using tariff threat, it increases the fear of global trade and maintenance of markets on the edge.
• Commercial tensions between the USA and China showed signs of alleviation after Washington raised key export restrictions on the software for designing chip and ethane shipments. American companies, such as abstract, cadence and Siemens, could resume the sale of tools of electronic design automation (EDA) for Chinese clients, while the principles of licensing ETAN exports were withdrawn, again opening a enormous flow of trade that got stuck in June. The change of policy occurs after China’s passage to facilitate restrictions on the export of uncommon lands, signaling a mutual step towards normalization of trade. While wider problems remain unresolved, the latest actions increased optimism around the US – China.
• This week, the developing tax “One Big Beautiful Bill” advanced at home, but remains on a shaky area as the internal republican divisions increased. While the bill has cleaned the key procedural obstacle in voting 219–213, several GOP legislators raised concerns about deep cuts of expenses, growing deficits and a potential explosion before the November elections. Despite the forceful pressure on the part of the US President Trump, who called a quick transition to the imposed on the deadline on July 4, the opposition of fiscal conservatives may delay or derail their final consent. During the press, the Chamber was still debating the package, and investors carefully observe the result, taking into account its potential impact on the level of federal debt and wider market moods.
• The profitability of a 10-year tax note in the US increased on Thursday by almost 6b / s to 4.34% after a stronger than expected job report.
• In addition to the solid NFP print, weekly unemployment claims dropped to 233,000, the lowest level in six weeks and below expectations of 240,000, which emphasizes the continuous strength of the labor market. At the same time, average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% in June, slightly below the expected 0.3%, which indicates gentle pressure on salary. While Miss on earning temperament inflation, the overall resistance of employment data reduced the urgency of the July reduction of the FED rate, helping to recover the land.
• The purchasing index of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Managers (PMI) increased to 50.8 in June, slightly above market expectations of 50.5 and over 49.9 in May. Signals of improvements renewed expansion in the American services sector, driven by a stronger business activity. The indicator of modern orders increased to 51.3, while business activity increased to 54.2. Although the employment indicator remained in contraction at 47.2, the overall boost indicates constant stability in the demand of the service sector.
• Speaking at an economic conference in Germany, noted President Atlanta Fed Raphael Bostic “Price adaptation and a wider economy for changes in trade and other upcoming rules … It will not be a short and simple one -off price change, as standard models of textbooks suggest.” He added that it could happen “A process that can take a year or more to fully play” potentially anchoring higher inflation expectations among consumers. Since the labor market data still show immunity, Bostic warned against rush to facilitate the policy: “The conditions of the labor market remain fundamentally healthy” and current indicators “They do not show any signs of deterioration that can justify the reduction of the preventive rate” Reported by Reuters.

Technical analysis: DXY is fighting near the key resistance after the wedge failure

The dollar index (DXY) has recently broken below the decreasing wedge pattern. After the failure, the index is currently floating in a narrow phase associated with the range between about 96.40 and 97.15, which suggests a fleeting break in sale. The index is now trying subtle reflection and it seems that it will again master the lower limit of a broken wedge near 96.80–97.00. This area, which once acted as support, now acts as resistance. The index is still trading below the 9-day interpretation average (EMA) at 97.25, strengthening the configuration of the bear, unless the buyer manages to recover this level with a forceful rush.

The shoot indicators also confirm the idea of ​​consolidation. The relative force indicator (RSI) sits nearly 31.49, which indicates a feeble momentum, which is slightly alleviated from the sale zone. The speed of changes (ROC) at -1.98 remains negative, but it flattens, which is in line with the side movement in the price. In compact, the American dollar indicator is in an attempt to recover after a failure, but without a forceful catalyst or stubborn risk observation, it still bends in the minus. A pure break below 96.60 can resume downward leprosy, and closing above 97.25 may indicate compact -term stabilization.