- The euro remains stable near Maksimów, and investors are looking for a side before the NFP report.
- Employment data Downbeat ADP increased the hopes for a reduction in the FED rate and constrained the recovery of the US dollar on Wednesday.
- The trade agreement between the USA and Vietnam increased optimism and increased weight to a secure, willing USD.
EUR/USD couple It is practically flat on Thursday, trades just below 1,1800 at the time of writing, near many years achieved at the beginning of this week. Investors’ appetite at risk is disappearing because the optimism regarding the American contract with Vietnam disappears cautious in the issue of non -Farmy data (NFP).
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced a commercial agreement with Vietnam, which increased the hope that more such contracts can be achieved before the date of July 9. The American dollar (USD) lost to the main peers before re -receiving, because other Asian countries complain about convoluted tariff negotiations from the USA.
In addition, Trump continued his attacks on the chairman of the Federal Reserve (FED), Jerome Powell. The US President asked Powell for “immediate resignation” in the latest episode of the unprecedented driving of the head of the Fed, who undermines the independence of the central bank and weakens the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency.
In the euro area, the unemployment data published on Wednesday showed the unexpected deterioration of the labor market, and the decision -makers of the European Central Bank (EBC) emphasized the risk of enduring low inflation resulting from a sturdy euro (EUR) and lower energy prices.
The most critical event this Thursday is the number of non -pharmacy wages in the USA, which were moved one day this month due to the Independence Day in the USA on Friday. Wage data will attract special interest, after an unexpected decline in the ADP employment report on Wednesday. The risk is a skewed defect in the American dollar, because the reading read can practically confirm the Fed interest rate in the coming months.
Euro price today
The table below shows the percentage change in the euro (EUR) in relation to the main currencies. The euro was the strongest in relation to the dollar of New Zealand.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPy | BOOR | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | -0.07% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.17% | 0.31% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | -0.07% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.17% | 0.28% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.16% | 0.10% | 0.23% | 0.34% | -0.06% | |
| JPy | -0.09% | -0.10% | -0.16% | -0.07% | 0.09% | 0.15% | -0.16% | |
| BOOR | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.10% | 0.07% | 0.14% | 0.25% | 0.05% | |
| Aud | -0.17% | -0.17% | -0.23% | -0.09% | -0.14% | -0.06% | -0.28% | |
| NZD | -0.31% | -0.28% | -0.34% | -0.15% | -0.25% | 0.06% | -0.40% | |
| CHF | -0.04% | -0.08% | 0.06% | 0.16% | -0.05% | 0.28% | 0.40% |
The heat map shows percentage changes in the main currencies towards each other. The basic currency is collected from the left, and the quote currency is collected from the upper order. For example, if you choose the euro on the left column and go along the horizontal line to the American dollar, the percentage shift displayed in the field will represent the EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Digest Market Movers: Higher hopes for reduction of fed rates keep the US dollar rallies constrained
- The ADP employment report showed in June a decrease in private wages in June, compared to market expectations in the range of growth by 95,000. In June reading contains the first spasm from Pandemic and increased the interest of investors in the NFP report, at 12:30 GMT, which will be read from the perspective of monetary policy.
- Wednesday’s ADP reading increased factories for FED rate reduction over the next two months. Futures contract markets now value a 25% chance of cutting in July, compared to 20% before the report, while the chances of at least 25 base points (BPS) in September increased to 96% from 90%, according to the data of CME Fed Watch tools.
- The market consensus provides for an enhance in non -parmer wages by 110 thousand. In June, after increasing 139 thousand In May. The unemployment rate is expected to enhance to 4.3% from 4.2%, with an average hourly profit at 3.9% annual, unchanged since the previous month.
- Later, ISM USM US PMI is expected to show that the sector’s activity returned to the growth level in June, from 50.5 reading from a compact contraction to 49.9 in May.
- HCOB services in the euro area of ​​PMI are to be released at 8:00 GMT and will probably show that business activities in the stagnation sector in June, with an index of 50.0, which divides the extension from contraction, after reading 49.7.
EUR/USD consolidates profits near 1.1830 heights
EUR/USD undergoes some consolidation because it accumulated over 2% in a 10-day rally, reaching the highest level in almost four years to 1.1830. The couple did not find significant acceptance above 11800, but until now they remain stable near the American dollar in defense.
The 4-hour chart shows an intact stubborn trend, with a 14-speed relative force indicator (RSI) well above level 50. Immediate support takes place at Wednesday’s lowest level, 1.1745. Next to the low level 27 June at 1.1680 to 26 June at the level of 1.1650 offers significant support for bear.
On the other hand, immediate resistance is at the highest level of 1.1810 before the highest level on June 1 at 1.1830. Above here 127.2% Fibonacci The level of reversal extension on July 1-2 is 1.1850.
Frequently asked questions about employment
The terms of the labor market are a key element of assessing the health of the economy, and thus the key engine of currency valuation. High employment or low unemployment has positive implications for consumer expenditure, and thus economic growth, increasing the value of the local currency. In addition, a very busy labor market – a situation where employees are missing to fill open positions – may also affect inflation levels, and thus monetary policy, because low work supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries grow in the economy is the key to decision -makers. High wage increases mean that households have more money to spend, usually leading to an enhance in the prices of consumer goods. Unlike more unstable sources of inflation, such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of the basic and persistent inflation, because the enhance in salaries is unlikely. Central banks around the world pay special attention to data on wage growth when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that every central bank attributes to the terms of the labor market depends on its goals. Some central banks clearly have fines related to the labor market in addition to controlling inflation levels. For example, the US Federal Reserve (FED) has a double ticket to promote maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the only mandate of the European Central Bank (EBC) is to maintain inflation under control. Despite this, despite all seats, the working market conditions are an critical factor for decision -makers, taking into account its importance as a health meter of the economy and their direct relationship with inflation.
