Golden Tanks as China and diplomacy in the Middle Eastern Euphoria

XAU/USD falls over 1.5%because secure demand disappears in global trade and geopolitical mitigation.
Signed US-China trade agreement; More contracts expected before July 9, increasing sentiments.
Iran signals diplomacy; Israel’s war – Gaza may end in two weeks, says Al Arabiya.
Core PCE has increased above forecasts; Kashkari Fed is still expecting two rates in 2025.

Gold The price dropped on Friday by over 1.50% among the improvement of risk appetite, powered by several factors. Declaration of the conflict of Israel and Ian, trade agreement with China and ongoing negotiations between United States (USA) and his peers to achieve commercial transactions were welcomed by investors who had previously sought shelter in a secure bullion demand.

XAU/USD is USD 3274 after reaching the highest level of USD 3328. On Thursday, the White House announced that the US and China formally signed a trade agreement, effectively ending the ongoing “trade war”. The Secretary of American Trade, Howard Lutnick, said that the date of July 9 was approaching.

As for geopolitics, Iran showed signs of flexibility, leaning towards diplomacy, as the representative of the UN said that Tehran was open to the creation of a regional nuclear consortium in the event of an agreement with Washington.

Adding to an bullish mood is the possibility of ending Israel’s war -gase in two weeks, revealed Al Arabiya.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve Inflation Index (FED), the basic indicator of personal consumption prices (PCE), was in line with estimates in May, but he showed no progress towards disinflation.

Earlier, Neel Kashkari from Minneapolis Fed commented that he still sees two stakes cut in 2025.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold Price Price to Correction for a enduring American dollar and in the USA

The price of gold loses its shine because market participants are becoming more and more bullish about the global economy. The news about the trade agreement with China, as well as with other countries, including South Korea, Vietnam and the EU, was welcomed by investors.
Howard Lutnick, an American secretary of trade, added that China would “provide us with rare lands”, and when they do this: “We will do our remedies”, Lutnick said Bloomberg News in an interview.
Core PCE in May increased by 2.7% y / y, tenth above estimates and April data. The header inflation in the same period increased by 2.3%. As expected.
The University of Michigan (UOM) revealed that consumer sentiments in June improved moderately. The indicator increased from 60.5 to 60.7, while the inflation expectations were corrected down and households expect prices from 5.1% to 5% in the following year. Over the next five years, it is expected that inflation is about 4%, compared to 4.1%.
The 10-year tax note in the USA is flat, gives 4.242%. The American dollar index (DXY), which tracks the buck value of the BUCK value in relation to the basket of six peers, is practically unchanged at 97.28.
Neel Kashkari, the president of Minneapolis Fed, said that the inflation is probably enhanced, but the actual inflation indicates re -progress in the target direction of 2%. You need more time to determine whether the effects of the trade war are delayed or will be smaller than initially thought.
Cash markets suggest that traders value at 63.5 base points facilitating at the end of the year, in accordance with the main data of market terminals.

Source: Main market terminal

XAU/USD Technical perspectives: gold set up to $ 3,200

Gold The price boost trend remains in place, but in a low period it may fall further after breaking below the 50-day straight movable average (SMA) to USD 3323. The relative force indicator (RSI) indicates that the shoot has become bear, despite the price, reaching higher levels and higher low.

For stubborn continuation, Xau/USD must boost after USD 3300. The following key resistance would be a 50-day SMA after USD 3323, followed by a 3650 USD peak. If it is exceeded, the next one is $ 3,400. On the other hand, if Xau/USD drops below USD 3300, May 29 low USD 3245 and USD 3200 can be obtained.

Frequently asked risk questions

In the world of financial jargon, two commonly used terms “risk” and “risk” relate to the level of risk that investors are willing to manage in the applied period. humble.

Usually, during “risk” periods of stock market markets will boost, most of the goods-except for gold-will gain value because they benefit from positive development. Currency of nations, which are sturdy exporters of goods, strengthen due to increased demand and cryptocurrencies. On the “Risk” market, bonds are growing-especially huge government bonds-the gold is shining and secure currencies, such as Japanese Jen, Swiss franc and American dollar.

Australian dollar (AUD), Canadian dollar (CAD), New Zealand dollar (NZD) and smaller FX, such as Rubel (Rub) and Rand Rand (ZAR), all tend to boost markets that are “risky”. This is due to the fact that the economies of these currencies are largely dependent on the export of goods for growth, and the goods tend to boost prices during risk periods. This is due to the fact that investors provide for a greater demand for raw materials in the future due to increased business activity.

The main currencies, which tend to grow during periods of “risk”, are the American dollar (USD), Japanese yen (JPy) and the Swiss franc (CHF). American dollar, because it is a global reserve currency, and because in the time of crisis investors they buy a US government debt, which is seen as secure, because the largest economy in the world will not guess. Jen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because high percentage is kept by domestic investors who will rather lose them – even in crisis. French Swiss, because the strict Swiss banking regulations offer investors to boost capital protection.