• USD/INR Sweet to a two -week low level among the wide weakness of the American dollar and a sturdy demand for rupe.
• Rupia supported by FII influence, capital market profits and falling oil prices.
• DXY maintains almost three years of the lowest levels because the criticism of Fed Trump and factories to lower the US fuel rate in the USA.

The Indian rupe (INR) strengthens on Friday, riding the wave of the weakness of the American dollar (USD), when Greenback moves further among political noise and tender economic prints. Fresh criticism of US President Donald Trump chairman of the Federal Reserve (FED) Jerome PowellIn conjunction with the weaker than expected US Q1 Gross Dominic Product (GDP), published on Thursday, they are heavily burdened with greenback. As a result American dollar index (DXY) remains pinned near the three -year minimum, increasing the demand for market currencies, such as Rupia.

USD/INR remains under pressure, trading nearly two weeks around 85.50 during an American trading session. The American dollar index (DXY) is above 97.00 after basic price indicators from personal consumption in May (PCE) became stronger than expected. Despite solid reading, wider concerns about the US fiscal policy and political pressure on the Fed are still constrained by maintaining DXY near the three -year minima.

The indicated criticism of the President of the Fed Powell chairman caused re -doubts about the independence of the central bank, which prompted traders to enhance interest rates. Trump could try more and more about the policy through the “shadow chair” – an unofficial position to influence the direction of Fed’s policy until the term Jerome Powell ends in May 2026.

Markets reacted quickly, and traders on Thursday increased plants for interest rate reduction. According to the CME group, the probability of three cuts this year increased to about 60%, compared to only two cuts expected earlier this week.

• The Indian rupe issues a solid recovery after suspension of weapons between Iran and Israel. On Friday, a rupe appreciated by 23 PAISE to 85.49 in relation to the American dollar, supported by the sturdy influence of the institutional investor (FII) and tone of risk on domestic capital markets. Rupia gained 1.3% per week, which is the best result in two and a half years.
• On the Capital Front, Indian Capital Tests ended higher during the fourth in a row session on Friday, with the closure of NIFTY50 at the level of 25 637-the other level from September 2024-led by shopping except for IT and real estate. Sensex gained 303 points until the end of 84 058.
• Lower oil prices also assist to recover the rupe by reducing import costs and alleviating the commercial deficit, especially after geopolitical voltages relieve geopolitical tensions. Both WTI and Brent Ropa fell by about 12%this week, and WTI trades nearly 65.20 USD, and Brent about USD 67.05 at the time of writing.
• According to data published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), on Friday, India registered the surplus on a current account of USD 13.5 billion, i.e. 1.3% of GDP, in the January quarter up to the budget year 2024–25. This means a violent improvement in relation to the surplus of USD 4.6 billion in the same period last year, driven primarily by sturdy export of services and an enhance in the influence of monetary messages. However, throughout the year, the current account remained in a deficit of USD 23.3 billion, which corresponds to 0.6% of GDP, RBI noticed in his report India payment balance in the fourth quarter 2024–25.
• While the current account position showed improvement in March, the external debt of India increased in particular at the same time. The total external debt of the country increased by 10% to USD 736.3 billion as of 2025, compared to USD 668.8 billion last year. As a share of GDP, external debt increased to 19.1% from 18.5% at the end of the previous budget year.
• Commercial negotiations between India and the USA reportedly stuck in a deadline misunderstandings regarding import duties in the field of car, steel and agricultural products, said Indian officials with direct knowledge. This failure darkens the hope of a contract before President Trump of July 9 to the imposition of mutual tariffs. While American officials have repeatedly stated that they are close to finalizing the trade agreement with India, no official announcement has been issued so far, keeping markets in waiting and observing mode.
• US President Donald Trump may extend the upcoming deadlines for applying higher tariffs to import from several countries, said the White House on Thursday. Tariffs, initially planned in side to each other on July 8 and 9, are no longer seen as enduring. The press secretary of the White House, Karoline Leavitt, told reporters that the dates of “not critical” and that although it is possible to extend, the president would make a final decision.
• President President Trump in the budget goes to a key test in the Senate, and the vote is to start on Friday. The challenge will take place after the Senate Parliamentary said that the proposed changes in Medicaid in the Act do not meet the criteria for the rapid budget process that Republicans exploit. President Trump is strongly pressed to approve the Senate of his main budget package before the date of July 4. This term is not legally binding, but is a political goal established by President Trump.
• The US Personal Consumption Price indicator (PCE) increased in May by 0.1% of mother, corresponding to both April reading and market expectations. However, the basic PCE – the preferred FED inflation rate – increased slightly, increased by 0.2% in a month, above 0.1% observed in the previous two months and before forecasts. In the annual principle, the PCE header accelerated to 2.3% compared to 2.2% height, while basic inflation was up to 2.7% from 2.6%, also overcoming estimates
• Meanwhile, personal income dropped by 0.4% to 25.698 USD trillion, after lowering the enhance of 0.7% in the previous month. The data was far below market forecasts, which expected a smaller decrease by 0.3%, signaling potential cooling in the rush of expenses and household income.
• Greenback remains under great pressure after the latest criticism of Trump Fed, along with the growing fears of US trade and fiscal prospects. The American dollar index (DXY) fell by over 10% from year to day and is on the right track due to the highest fall in the first half from the beginning of the free currency era in the early seventies.

Technical analysis: breaks in USD/INR RISING Wedge, Eyes deeper withdrawal

The USD/INR pair definitely broke below the lower border of the rising channel, which he respected from the beginning of May, indicating that the bears have an advantage. The couple currently trade around 85.48, sliding below the 21-day interpretation of the movable medium (EMA) to 85.84-non-peculiar technical signal.

The break below psychological support in 86.00 opened the door to the test of the next horizontal support near 85.00, marked with the previous level of consolidation. Strong daily close to the current level of 85.50 can speed up the rush down in the direction of 85.00 and probably 84.50 in the upcoming sessions.

The relative force indicator (RSI) dropped to 44.88 and is still collecting down. This confirms the weakening momentum and tips with a greater minus, unless the buyers regain the zone 85.85–86.00.