Draft USD/INR on Iran-Israel Battffire Relief and softer oil prices

The Indian rupe gains the next day, supported by more tender oil prices and a weaker American dollar.
US President Donald Trump announces a “complete and total” suspension of weapons between Iran and Israel, calming global energy markets.
Global S&P ratings raises the forecast of India’s growth to 6.5% and sees moderate inflation.

The USD/INR pair falls on Tuesday, the third in a row, as withdrawal in the global Petroleum Prices and weaker Greenback have improved the perspectives of the trade balance of India. Usendy improved after US President Donald Trump announced in social media that Iran and Israel agreed to suspend the weapons, soothing the tensions that kept the energy markets on the edge in recent days.

At the time of writing, USD/INR has a company over 86.00 in American commercial hours, by about 0.50% during the day, when Rupia expands its modest victorious run.

Meanwhile, American dollar index (DXY) remains under pressure, drifting lower in the direction of 97.95 – close to its lowest level in almost three years – as a softening of geopolitical tensions in green.

Global markets were satisfied with a ceasefire newspulling some pressure on unthreatening assets and energy prices. US President Donald Trump called this “complete” suspension of weapons through social truth, stating that Iran would stop warfare first, and Israel will join 12 hours later – the framework that, he said, was broken by Qatar with the participation of senior US officials, including vice president Vance and secretary Rubio.

The Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu supported the plan, stating that his government “achieved military goals” and would honor the break in the USA.

Foreign Minister Iran Abbas Araghchi initially rejected the conversation about a formal agreement, but later suggested de -escalation, praising Iran’s armed forces for “fighting until the last moment”, and the state media reported that the truce began.

Despite the fact that Israel confirmed his involvement in a truce, some officials quickly accused Iran of violating the conditions – Tehran’s accusation definitely denied. While this de -escalation softened geopolitical risk contributions, the markets remain attentive to each renovated explosion that could quickly liven up the variability on oil and currency markets.

Movers: Rupia reflects as a company dealing with shares

The Indian rupe, which has been under pressure since the outbreak of the Iran-Israel conflict-to go to the lowest level of the lowest level-they are issuing a solid recovery. Several global and domestic factors, including alleviating geopolitical tensions, muffled oil prices and a softer American dollar, fueled a piercing reflection.
India in India increased when investors’ optimism increased, driven by better risk moods and lower oil prices. BSE Sensex jumped by almost 1% in the endowy, briefly adding over 1100 points before cutting profits to about 158 points above 82 744. Similarly, NSE NIFTY increased above 25 200 years. Hopes for a constant suspension of weapons in the Middle East and a softer Greenback supported shopping in most sectors, although energy shares remained behind because of the weaker prices of oil.
According to the EXACHANGEMENT INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS (FIIS) data, they unloaded actions worth 5 266.01 CRER on Tuesday.
After Monday, oil sales, oil prices extended the losses on Tuesday, with Brent to fall below USD 70 for the first time in weeks as sanguine in relation to the suspension of Iran-Israel weapons cut a geopolitical risk bonus. However, the prices later increased some of the end -held decline – at the time of writing Brent trads near USD 68.66 per barrel, and WTI has about USD 66.50. The tender energy market still soothes cost pressure for oil importing countries, such as India, offering support for rupees and wider risk moods, although traders are careful about the brittle character of the truce.
According to RBI data, currency reserves in India increased by $ 2.29 billion to $ 698.95 billion. A member of MPC, RAM Singh, said that this well buffer should facilitate cushion the risk of inflation from higher oil and fertilizers, although he warned that Rupia could face the pressure from the last outflows of bonds worth $ 5 billion and maintain geopolitical uncertainty.
Sanjay Malhotra’s Governor of the Bank of the Reserve Bank (RBI) repeated that RBI will continue to monitor the evolving liquidity conditions and the financial market conditions and to take further funds proactively, as justified. Reflecting this position, the RBI announced a 7-day auction of the opposite variable repository (VRRR) on June 27 to absorb the surplus of funds, and the liquidity of the banking system is 2.43 Lakh Crore as of June 23.
Global S&P ratings have raised India GDP growth forecast for the current financial year up to 6.5%, compared to previous estimates by 6.3%, citing supporting factors such as falling oil prices, perspective of monetary relief and the waiting of the normal monsoon season. The agency also noted that although geopolitical tensions persist, it is unlikely to create a “significant pressure” for a rupe or risk of stoke inflation, offering an encouraging background for currency and a wider economy.
Economist S&P Vishruit Rana told PTI that energy costs remain lower than last year – Brent Ride on average around USD 85 per barrel a year ago, compared to current levels. “This will help include both the outflow of the current account and domestic pressure on the price of energy – while energy prices may increase moderately, the food price path will have a greater inflation. In general, we do not expect significant pressure on Indian rupe or inflation,” added the wound.
The updated estimation of the growth of FY2026 S&P for India is in line with the forecast of the India Reserve Bank, determining the expansion of GDP to 6.5%. In addition to stronger growth, S&P forecasts that India inflation will be moderate to an average of 4% in 2025, facilitating 4.6% in 2024.
According to the up-to-date report of the Equirus property management company, India intends to develop the G7 economy. India’s contribution to the global growth of GDP is currently significantly exceeding Japan’s contribution (below 1%) and Germany (just over 1.3%). “India is no longer the fastest growing economy in the world-it is structurally better than most G7 nations. This is a seismic change” Mitesh Shah said, CEO Equirus Credence Family Office.
The chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell on Tuesday strengthened a cautious but adaptable tone in the US monetary policy. He repeated that the Fed needed “more certainty that inflation is balanced in the direction of 2%” before lowering the rates, but admitted that “many paths are possible”, leaving the door open to the potential traffic already in July, if the conditions justify. Powell explained “We would see that inflation is not as strong as we expect. If this was the case, it would usually suggest limiting earlier. We could see how the labor market would weaken and would also suggest shortening earlier. On the other hand, if we saw inflation, which is higher or if the labor market remain strong, we would probably move later.”IN
Futures market prices indicate only 23% likely to cut at the meeting on July 29-30, with a much greater probability of the next reduction in September, in accordance with the CME Group group Fedwatch gauge.

Technical analysis: USD/INR softens after breaking the triangle, EMA support in concentration

From a technical point of view, USD/INR broke free into a monthly triangle model at the beginning of June, confirming the additional prejudice.

The couple exceeded the decreasing resistance, but quickly encountered pressure for sale near 86.80–87.00. This zone narrow further profits, which caused a slight withdrawal in the last three days.

The pair now floats slightly above the 21-day interpretation of the movable average (EMA), which serves as immediate support at around 85.90. Maintaining this level can facilitate bulls regroup in the next attempt of a recent height near 86.50, while the break below may reveal the next support of about 85.50 and upper processing of the triangle trend line.

The shoot signals show early signs of fatigue, which indicates a potentially agitated price effect in the near future.

The daily relative force indicator (RSI), which recently reached the peak above 67, has returned to the neutral zone 50, which suggests that the stubborn rush of steam, but they are not fully reversing yet.

If the buyers defend EMA support, the couple can maintain bland prejudice. However, a lasting decrease below the area of 85.90–85.70 may encourage further profits by dragging USD/INR back in the previous consolidation.