- Trade in USD/JPY above 144.00, when secure flows escalate the American dollar among growing tensions in the Middle East.
- It is expected to keep the rates, limiting the support for Jen, despite the previous signals of Jastrzębie from the Governor of the Ueda.
- Japan and the US are preparing for a meeting at the G7 summit in Canada, where both nations are expected to discuss bilateral relations and negotiate in the tariffs.
Japan Yen (JPY) weakens on Friday to the American dollar (USD) because the geopolitical drive and the discrepancy of central bank policy are driving the market.
USD/JPY organized a modest reflection by trading above 144.00 at the time of writing, as the demand for a secure American dollar increases.
Reports about Israeli strikes about Iranian nuclear objects raised geopolitical risk, supporting USD and weighed Jen.
Meanwhile, the expectations that the Bank of Japan (Bij) will leave interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting on Tuesday, have further confined JPA profits.
While the Governor of Bij Kazuo Ueda previously signaled the possibility of increasing foot in response to the growing national inflation, the last economic data suggest that the recovery of Japan remain frail. Industrial production has slowed down, and the Japanese production sector sensitive to export is struggling under the pressure of steep American tariffs to steel, aluminum and cars, key co -creators of the Japanese gross domestic domestic product (GDP).
The University of Michigan published its initial study of consumer moods for the United States on Friday, which indicates a noticeable escalate in trust among households in the USA.
Meanwhile, both annual and five years of waiting for consumers inflation fell lower, with the annual perspective to 5.1% from 6.6%, and five -year forecasts dropped to 4.1% from 4.2%. This repeated softer than the expected readings of the consumer price indicator (CPI) and the manufacturer’s price index (PPI) at the beginning of the week, which raised expectations regarding the reduction of the rate by the Federal Reserve in September.
However, because the Fed is widely expected to maintain rates both in June and July, and the boy showing slight urgency to further exacerbation, the current interest rate differences remain supporting in the near future.
Technical analysis of USD/JPY – daily table
USD/JPY trades on Friday near 144.14, sitting just below 23.6% of Fibonacci departure from the estate of January and April at 144.37.
The couple continues the coil in a symmetrical triangle, defined by the decreasing trend in January with January height by 158.88 and increasing support from the lowest level of April 2025 at 139.89.
Both 20-day (143.96) and 50-day (144.14) Simple movable medium (SMA) converge near the current levels, emphasizing the indecision and potential of the explosion. Daily close above the triangle resistance and 144.37 may reveal the level 147.14 (38.2% fibonacci) and 149.38 (50% of Fibonacci).
On the other hand, a break below 143.00 would escalate the pressure towards the grip of 141.00 and low April. The relative force indicator (RSI) is neutral at 49, which indicates a lack of sturdy shoot in both directions; However, price compression suggests that it can build a greater directional traffic.
Daily USD/JPY chart
Frequently inflicted by Japanese Jena
Japan Japan (JPY) is one of the most rotating currencies in the world. Its value depends widely by the results of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by Bank of Japan Policy, the difference between the profitability of Japanese and American bonds or risk moods among investors.
One of the mandates of the Bank of Japan is currency control, so its movements are crucial for Jen. Boj sometimes intervened directly on currency markets, generally to reduce the value of Jen, although it often refrains from doing it because of the political fears of the main trading partners. BOJ Ultra-Loose Monetary policy in the years 2013–2024 meant that Jen was absorbed in relation to the main currency peers due to the growing discrepancy of policy between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. Recently, the gradual unwinding of this ultra-losing policy gave some support to Jen.
Over the past decade, the attitude of the BOJ regarding the sticking to the ultra-losing monetary policy has led to the discrepancy of politics with other central banks, especially among the US Federal Reserve. This confirmed the expansion of the difference between 10-year bonds in the USA and Japanese, which favored the American dollar in relation to Japanese yen. The decision Bij in 2024, about the gradual abandonment of ultra-losing policy, combined with interest cuts at other main central banks, narrows this difference.
Japanese yen is often seen as a secure investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors more often place their money in Japanese currency due to its alleged reliability and stability. Turbulent times will probably strengthen the value of Jen in relation to other currencies perceived as more risky to invest.
