The Commerzbank position in relation to the unemployment rate is very similar to last year’s and is currently 4.2%, which has changed very little in recent months. A year ago it was 4.0%, it increased very slowly in the previous months. However, the number of recent jobs has slowed down significantly. A year ago, the three -month movable average was 185,000. However, on Friday only 139,000 recent jobs were reported, which will reduce the average three months to 135,000. The quarterly of the employment and payroll and payroll suggests that the number of recent jobs can be changed down again, he notices that the FX Commerzbank Volkmar Baur analyst.

Fed, unlikely to see the reason to lower the key interest rate by 100 PZ

“This suggests that although much less new jobs are created than last year, this does not currently affect the unemployment rate. This is probably because the number of Americans at working age is growing much slower than last year, which seems completely likely, taking into account the change of immigration policy.”

“As a consequence, in the coming months, the market is probably more focused on the rate of unemployment and the development of average hourly salaries than on the number of new jobs. First, the unemployment rate is not changed in the same way as the number of new jobs. Secondly, the Fed is concerned about how closely related to the labor market is. After all, full employment is part of its possibilities.

“If the supply of working strength is growing much more slowly, the FED can easily tolerate lower data on recent jobs. Because the unemployment rate has almost not changed in recent months and only grows very slowly, if at all, the FED will not see a significant reason to reduce its key interest rate by 100 base points in the near future. Even if the number of recent jobs is much lower.