- The euro did not operate the sanguine sales of GDP and retail sales; A reduction in the EBC rate perceived as its limit is approaching.
- The US economy added 139,000 jobs in May, the highest in 2025, and the unemployment rate at 4.2%.
- Hot labor data increased the American dollar and tax yields, suppressing hopes for a reduction in the FED rate.
EUR/USD departure down extends losses on Friday after reaching a six -week highest level near 1.1500 as Non -Farmy payroll numbers in United States (USA) came stronger than expected, despite cooling. The print prompted investors to price in less pigeons Federal reserve (Fed), while Euro (EUR) did not gain adhesion to sanguine economic data, was revealed earlier. The pair trads at 1.1386, a decrease by 0.51%.
Data on jobs in the USA, as revealed by the Office of Labor Statistics (BLS), presented the reliability of the labor market and the economy, with the printing the second highest in 2025, it was registered in April 147k. Therefore, the unemployment rate remained unchanged.
As expected, the American dollar developed, driven by a jump in the American profitability of treasury bonds and the sanguine mood among investors who bought us actions Among the conflict between US President Donald Trump and Elon Musk.
EUR/USD did not gain adhesion despite the number of gross domestic products (GDP) rising above estimates and exceeding printing in the previous quarter. Throughout the year, GDP improved from 1.2% to 1.5%, while retail sales also increased in April.
During the week, the European Central Bank (EBC) decided to reduce the rates to 2%, because inflation dropped below the central bank’s purpose, but signaled that it would stop its mitigation cycle. Robert Holzmann voted in favor of maintaining unchanged rates and President of ECB LAGARDE He suggested that the soothing cycle was coming to an end.
Next week Euro zone (EU) Docket Economic will contain an ECB study of monetary analysis and industrial production. American inflationary data on the consumer and manufacturer will appear in the American schedule, along with the initial edition of the University of Michigan (UOM) consumers.
Euro price this week
The table below shows the percentage change in the euro (EUR) compared to the main currencies this week. The euro was the strongest against Jen Japanese.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPy | BOOR | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.42% | -0.47% | 0.70% | -0.32% | -0.93% | -0.94% | -0.12% | |
| EUR | 0.42% | -0.06% | 1.12% | 0.09% | -0.51% | -0.56% | 0.29% | |
| GBP | 0.47% | 0.06% | 1.20% | 0.15% | -0.45% | -0.50% | 0.35% | |
| JPy | -0.70% | -1.12% | -1.20% | -1.01% | -1.61% | -1.65% | -0.90% | |
| BOOR | 0.32% | -0.09% | -0.15% | 1.01% | -0.61% | -0.65% | 0.19% | |
| Aud | 0.93% | 0.51% | 0.45% | 1.61% | 0.61% | 0.02% | 0.92% | |
| NZD | 0.94% | 0.56% | 0.50% | 1.65% | 0.65% | -0.02% | 0.85% | |
| CHF | 0.12% | -0.29% | -0.35% | 0.90% | -0.19% | -0.92% | -0.85% |
The heat map shows percentage changes in the main currencies towards each other. The basic currency is collected from the left, and the quote currency is collected from the upper order. For example, if you choose the euro on the left column and go along the horizontal line to the American dollar, the percentage shift displayed in the field will represent the EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Digest Market Movers: EUR/USD Trend Trends on powerful data in the USA
- EUR/USD uptrend remains intact, but it would be premature to assume that it will remain so, taking into account the uncertainty for economic data publications in the USA and the euro area.
- In May, American wages increased by 139 thousand. In May, overcoming the expectations of 130,000, but 147,000 were not slowed down. While the signs of the cooling labor market are evident, the general conditions remain powerful, even when the economy slows down.
- The unemployment rate remained at the level of 4.2%, which resulted in the withdrawal of the expectations of the rate, while the markets now predict less than two Fed cuts until the end of 2025.
- According to Bloomberg, EBC officials expect rates to be stopped in July. “Some officials see a reduction in the cost of the loan, because maybe already completed, while others still support another move – probably in September, according to people.”
- Financial market players do not expect ECB to reduce the rate of deposit interference by 25 base points (BPS) at the July monetary policy meeting.
Euro technical perspectives: EUR/USD diving below 1.1400
EUR/USD is authorized up, despite the withdrawal to two -day minima 1.1371, because the buyers did not break the sign of 1.1500, which could have tightened the move to 1.1600. Momentum disappears when the relative force indicator (RSI) remains stubborn, but strives for its neutral line. However, as long as the euro remains near 1,1380-1.1400, the buyers are responsible.
The next resistance would be 1,1500. The violation of the latter revealed the APRIL summit at 1.1572, followed by 1,1600.
And vice versa, if EUR/USD The lowest level 1.1344 falls below 2 June, transfer to 1,1300 on the cards. The violation of the latter would reveal a 20-day straight movable average (SMA) to 1.1284, followed by a 50-day SMA to 1.1218 and 1,1200.
EBC FAQ
The European Central Bank (EBC) in Frankfurt, Germany is a bank reserve bank. EBC establishes interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The basic mandate of the ECB is to maintain price stability, which means maintaining inflation at about 2%. Its main tool to achieve this is to boost or reduce interest rates. Relatively high interest rates usually cause a stronger euro and vice versa. The ECB Managing Council makes decisions regarding monetary policy at meetings taking place eight times a year. Decisions are made by the heads of national banks of the euro area and six eternal members, including the President of EBC, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank may protect the political tool called quantitative fox. QE is a process in which ECB prints the euro and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually causes a weaker euro. QE is a last resort when just lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the goal of price stability. EBC used it during the great financial crisis in 2009–2011, in 2015, when inflation remained stubborn low, as well as during Covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. This is undertaken after QE when economic recovery is underway and inflation begins to grow. While in QE, the European Central Bank (EBC) buys government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to ensure them liquidity, in QT EBC it stops buying more bonds and stops reinvesting the main maturation in the bonds it already has. It is usually positive (or stubborn) for the euro.
