- EUR/USD finish after reaching 1.1420 as a result of a tariff relief; Holiday markets keep the dollar under pressure.
- Trump postpages 50% EU tariff threat to July 9, soothing miniature -term commercial voltages.
- Lagarde indicates EBC Euro can compete with a dollar if the block strengthens its financial unity.
- Kashkari fed flag flags from tariffs; The September policy path remains uncertain.
EUR/USD begins a week on the front foot, but it cut some of the earlier profits after reaching a four -week maximum of 1.1420, sponsored by the reversal of US President Donald Trump regarding his decision to introduce tariffs to the European Union on June 1. At the time of writing main currency transactions by 1.1380, by 0.20%.
Last week, at the end of Friday, Trump threatened to apply 50% tariffs to EU goods on June 1, because negotiations with the block do not follow the expectations. This caused a leg in EUR/USD, ending with a two -day maximum 1.1375. Nevertheless, the call between the President of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen and Trump on Sunday bought some time for both sides to reach an agreement with the date of July 9.
The fall of Greenback favored the euro, which, according to the President of the European Central Bank (EBC), Christine Lagarde can become a real alternative to the US dollar (USD) as a reserve currency in the world. However, she stated that this could happen if the governments strengthen financial architecture and block safety.
The American dollar index (DXY), which follows the performance of the American currency compared to six other currencies, dropped by 0.10%. Despite this, it remains stable at 99.00 due to suppressed trade conditions in observing the holidays on the day of memory in the USA.
Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Minneapolis (Fed), said that uncertainty is the most significant for FED and USA companies. He said that the September meeting is open to “anything”, adding that the American central bank is in waiting mode and see. He added that the tariff shock is stagflation.
Euro price today
The table below shows the percentage change in the euro (EUR) in relation to the main currencies. The euro was the strongest against Jen Japanese.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPy | BOOR | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.27% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.10% | -0.22% | -0.03% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | -0.12% | 0.36% | 0.17% | 0.24% | -0.08% | 0.12% | |
| GBP | 0.27% | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.29% | 0.36% | 0.04% | 0.26% | |
| JPy | -0.19% | -0.36% | -0.15% | -0.15% | -0.09% | -0.46% | -0.21% | |
| BOOR | -0.03% | -0.17% | -0.29% | 0.15% | 0.08% | -0.25% | -0.03% | |
| Aud | -0.10% | -0.24% | -0.36% | 0.09% | -0.08% | -0.36% | -0.10% | |
| NZD | 0.22% | 0.08% | -0.04% | 0.46% | 0.25% | 0.36% | 0.22% | |
| CHF | 0.03% | -0.12% | -0.26% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.10% | -0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes in the main currencies towards each other. The basic currency is collected from the left, and the quote currency is collected from the upper order. For example, if you choose the euro on the left column and go along the horizontal line to the American dollar, the percentage shift displayed in the field will represent the EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Market EUR/USD: Basics enormous fiscal deficit in the USA, robust EU data
- The last data in the EU support the further advantages of the EUR/USD pair, because the German economy grew faster than expected. Gross domestic product (GDP) for Q1 2025 amounted to 0.4% compared to 0.2%.
- Greenback remains on the back foot, charged by the approval of Trump’s tax account in the House of Representatives, which is on the way to the Senate. According to the Office (CBO) budget congress, the proposal would add nearly $ 4 trillion to the US debt ceiling within a decade.
- EUR/USD will remain powered by economic data. In the EU economic schedule contains German data on consumer trust, employment and retail sales in the EU in Germany. Inflation will be reported in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the EU.
- The American economic document will include April orders for fixed goods, Federal Open Committee Committee (FOMC), the second respect for GDP in 2025 and the exemption of basic personal consumption price indicators (PCE), preferred FED inflation indicators.
- The European Central Bank (EBC) is expected to reduce interest rates at the upcoming meeting. On Friday, Rehn and Stournaras ECB supported the reduction of the rate in June, and the latter supported the pause after this meeting.
Source: Main market terminal
Technical perspectives EUR/USD: In the near future questioning 1,1400
EUR/USD remains biased, despite creating a “inverted hammer”, which indicates that sellers are ahead of buyers because of the enormous upper shadow in today’s price campaign. However, further confirmation is necessary, and the couple must fall below 1.1300 for sellers if they want to test lower prices.
Another level of key support would be a 20-day straight moving average (SMA) at 1.1270, followed by a 1,1200 sign.
On the other hand, if EUR/USD stays above 1.1375, the next resistance would be the highest level of May 26 1.1418, followed by 1.1450 and 1,1500.
FAQ euro
The euro is the currency of 19 European Union countries, which belong to the euro area. This is the second most frequently commercial currency in the world behind the American dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all currency transactions, with an average daily turnover of over USD 2.2 trillion per day. EUR/USD is the most rotating currency pair in the world, which is about a 30%discount on all transactions, followed by EUR/JPy (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (EBC) in Frankfurt, Germany is a bank reserve bank. EBC sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The main mandate of the ECB is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its main tool is to escalate or reduce interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or waiting for higher feet – will usually bring the benefits of the euro and vice versa. The ECB Managing Council makes decisions regarding monetary policy at meetings taking place eight times a year. Decisions are made by the heads of national banks of the euro area and six indefinite members, including the President of EBC, Christine Lagarde.
Data on inflation in the euro area, measured by a harmonized consumer price indicator (HICP), are an significant econometric for the euro. If inflation increases more than expected, especially if it is above the target 2% EBC, it obliges EBC to raise interest rates to restore it to control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the euro, because it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
The data release the health of the economy and can affect the euro. Indicators such as GDP, PMI production and services, surveys regarding employment and consumer moods can affect the direction of the common currency. A robust economy is good for the euro. It not only attracts more foreign investment, but can encourage EBC to set interest rates, which will directly strengthen the euro. Otherwise, if economic data is faint, the euro will probably fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are particularly significant because they constitute 75% of the euro area economy.
Another significant issue of data for the euro is the commercial balance. This indicator measures the difference between what the country earns on exports and what spends on imports in a given period. If the country generates a highly sought after export, its currency will gain value only from additional demand created by foreign buyers trying to buy these goods. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
