The Federal Reserve (FED) Bank of New York John Williams noticed during the speech at two -year Macroeconometric Caribbean conferences in Nassau that the Fed’s work consisting in forecasting economic results is becoming more and more arduous, especially under the weight of the trading war threats by the Trump administration.

Key attractions

The current forecast Fed Path looks reasonable.

Both the economic risk and the risk of growth inflation are very high.

Risk and uncertainty management is a key issue of monetary policy.

The US central bank is not in a hurry to make another monetary policy decision. It was more arduous to forecast the perspective now.

It is necessary to maintain the expectations of inflation.

Data on the expectations of the University of Michigan inflation are protruding.

I comfort the stability of long -term inflation expectations.

I can’t say yet what clear impact of tariffs will be on inflation.

The Fed gained greater clarity in the Trump policy program.