• The Australian dollar remains constant after the issue of key economic data from China on Monday.
• Chinese retail sales increased by 4% y / r / ripped, compared to the enhance by 3.7% of December.
• Market expectations suggest that the FED will maintain the current political position unchanged on Wednesday.

The Australian dollar (AUD) remains in relation to the American dollar (USD) after the issue of Chinese economic data on Monday. In addition, the Aud/USD pair has gained because the US dollar (USD) becomes smaller before the release of retail data in the rest of the session in North America.

Chinese retail sales increased by 4% year-on-year in January-February, improving from the enhance by 3.7% of December. Meanwhile, industrial production increased in the same period by 5.9%, exceeding 5.3% of the forecast, but slightly lower than the previous 6.2% reading.

Audi can gain a basis because China has presented a special action plan on the weekend to revive consumption, raising market moods throughout the region. The plan includes funds aimed at increasing salaries, increasing household expenses and stabilizing inventory and real estate markets. Any positive achievements related to the Chinese stimulus plan can enhance the Australian dollar, because China is the main trading partner in Australia.

The Aud/USD couple may receive support from improving risk moods among reports of a potential discussion about the suspension of weapons between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin this week. Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, said on Sunday that he expected two leaders to speak, adding that Putin “accepts the philosophy” of Trump’s arms and peace conditions, according to The Guardian.

The Australian dollar is gaining on a popular risk mood

• The American dollar index (DXY), which measures USD in relation to the six main currencies, lower edges and trades around 103.70 at the time of writing. However, Greenback faced the wind after the University of Michigan (UOM) reported a decrease in the initial consumer mood indicator on Friday, falling to 57.9 – the lowest from November 2022 – from the previous reading 64.7. This number was also below the estimation of consensus 63.1. Meanwhile, the five -year waiting for the inflation of UOM consumers increased in March to 3.9%, compared to 3.5% in February.
• Markets generally anticipate that the Federal Reserve (FED) will maintain its current political position when it ends the two -day meeting on Wednesday. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, traders valued almost 75% of the probability of a quarter point reduction to June.
• On Sunday, Houthi stated that they began an assault with 18 ballistic and cruise missiles, along with drones, directed to the airport of USS Harry S. Truman and his escort of war ships in the northern Red Sea. Meanwhile, the Secretary of Defense of the United States stated that the United States would continue to hit the Houth Jemens until they cease to ship, because the group leveled with Iran the escalation in retaliation for the mortal strikes of the US day the previous day.
• The Secretary of the US Treasury Scott Bessent said behind schedule Sunday that he was not worried about the stock exchange, despite many decreases caused by Trump’s tariff threats. “I have been in the investment industry for 35 years and I can say that the corrections are healthy. They are normal. What is not healthy is the market that only moves straight, “said Bessent.
• The decision of the US President Donald Trump to maintain a 25% tariff for Australian aluminum and steel exports worth almost $ 1 billion. This movement increases Australia’s commercial forecasts, affecting the main exports.
• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed that Australia would not impose on mutual tariffs on the USA, emphasizing that retaliation will raise only the costs of Australian consumers and fuel inflation.

Technical analysis: Australian dollar maintains a position above 0.6300, nine -day EMA

The Aud/USD pair floats around 0.6340 on Monday, maintaining a stubborn perspective after recovering the position in the growing channel on the daily chart. The 14-day relative strength indicator (RSI) has also increased above 50, which additionally supports a positive shoot.

Immediate support can be seen on the nine-day interpretation average (EMA) of 0.6309, followed by a 50-day EMA at 0.6306 and the lower border of the ascending channel. The decisive break below this critical support zone may weaken the stubborn prejudice by exposing the pair of Aud/USD to pressure down towards the six -week lowest level 0.6187, registered on March 5.

On the other hand, the Aud/USD pair may try to open the highest level of 0.6408 again, last seen on February 21. Breaking above this level would strengthen the stubborn prejudices, potentially bringing steam towards the upper border of the canal growing near 0.6470.

Aud/USD: Daily Chart