• The Australian dollar is gaining momentum when investors react to fears regarding the potential slowdown in the US economy.
• The Aud is supported by a stronger GDP growth and solid commercial data from Australia.
• President San Francisco Fed Mary Daly noticed that the growing uncertainty between companies can weaken the demand in the US economy.

The Australian dollar (AUD) bounced on Monday, recovering the losses from the previous two sessions in relation to the American dollar (USD). Movement up the Aud/USD pair was primarily an fear of a potential slowdown in the US economy.

Aussie dollar also received support than a stronger than expected GDP growth and commercial data from Australia published last week. On the monetary policy front, the latest minutes of the Australian Bank (RBA) meetings (RBA) indicated caution in the matter of further reduction of interest rates, explaining that the reduction of February rate does not signal the obligation to further alleviate.

However, the audience may face the inheritance pressure after the disappointing Chinese data indicator (CPI) for February, taking into account the role of China as the largest trading partner in Australia, published on Saturday.

In addition, China announced on Saturday that they would impose a 100% tariff on Canadian oil, oil and peas, as well as 25% fee for water products and pork from Canada. This movement appears in the opposite towards tariffs introduced by Canada in October, escalating commercial tensions. This is a novel front in a broader trade conflict largely by the tariff policy of US President Donald Trump. The tariffs are to apply on March 20.

The Australian dollar appreciates because the American dollar decreases in connection with the fears of the American economy

• The American dollar index (DXY), which measures the American dollar compared to the six main currencies, lose its land after the fifth day in a row, trading around 103.80 at the time of writing. However, the minus of the green explosion may be restricted when it gives an raise in the US treasury.
• Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) showed on Friday that non -farmed wages (NFP) increased by 151,000 in February, not achieved 160,000. The raise in January employment was also changed down to 125,000 from previously reported 143,000.
• President Fed Fed Mary Daly said at the end of Sunday that an raise in uncertainty between companies may weaken the demand in the US economy, but does not guarantee a change in interest rates. Was noticed that business leaders in its district express growing concerns about the economy and politics, which indicates demand.
• The Secretary of American Trade Howard Lutnick stated on Sunday that 25% of the tariff, imposed by President Donald Trump in February, on the import of steel and aluminum, which is to apply on Wednesday, is unlikely, according to Bloomberg. While we, Stelowcy, called on Trump to maintain tariffs, companies depending on these materials can face increased costs.
• President Trump stated on Sunday that it provides for a positive result of the US discussion with Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia. Trump also mentioned that his administration considered the abolition of an interview in Ukraine, assesses various aspects of tariffs to Russia and does not worry about military exercises with the participation of Russia, China and Iran, according to Reuters.
• GDP in Australia increased by 0.6% of the quarter of an hour in the fourth quarter of 2024, exceeding the expansion by 0.3% Q3 and overcoming market expectations by 0.5%. As part of the annual GDP increased to 1.3% in Q4 with 0.8% in the previous quarter.
• Australia commercial surplus increased in January to 5,620 million, exceeding the expected 5,500 million and improving from the previous 4,924 million (changed from 5 085 million). Exports increased by 1.3% of the month of the month compared to the previous month, reaching an 11-month high level with non-monetary gold. Meanwhile, imports dropped by 0.3% MOM, according to a edged raise by 5.9% in the previous month, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics.
• Deputy Governor of the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) Andrew Hauser emphasized that the global trade uncertainty is 50 years ancient. Hauser warned that the uncertainty resulting from the tariffs of US President Donald Trump may lead enterprises and households to delay planning and investment, potentially burdening economic growth.
• The consumer price index in China dropped by 0.7% year -on -year in February, exceeding market expectations by 0.5% inheritance and withdrawing an raise by 0.5% recorded last month. This is the first instance of consumer deflation since January 2024, directed by the weakening of seasonal demand after the spring festival at the end of January. Every month, CPI inflation was -0.2% in February, compared to 0.7% in January and softer than expected -0.1%.
• The Chinese price index of manufacturers (PPI) dropped by 2.2% year -on -year in February, which is slightly exceeding market expectations of 2.1%. This is due to a 2.3% decrease in the last two months and is the slowest decline since August 2024.

Technical analysis: Australian dollar tests nine EMA days near 0.6300

Aud/USD is near 0.6320 on Monday, and the technical analysis of the daily table indicating that the pair remains slightly above the nine -day interpretation of the average movable (EMA), which suggests strengthening the compact -term rush. In addition, the 14-day relative strength indicator (RSI) remains above 50, strengthening the stubborn perspective.

On the other hand, the first resistance appears at the psychological level of 0.6400, and then a three -month highest level of 0.6408, registered on February 21.

Immediate support for Aud/USD is nine -day EMA 0.6301. The break below this key level may cause further declines, potentially re -supplementing the five -weekly lowest level 0.6187, registered on March 5.

Aud/USD: Daily Chart