• The Australian dollar remains under pressure, because the February minutes of RBA meetings emphasized the risk to the economy.
• Australia’s retail sales increased in January by 0.3%, which in December in December in December in December is recovered from a decrease by 0.1%.
• The American dollar weakened after European leaders expressed support for security guarantee for Ukraine, improving risk moods in global markets.

The Australian dollar (AUD) withdraws on Tuesday compared to the US dollar (USD), giving up recent benefits. The Aud/USD pair remains under pressure after issuing the reports of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meetings and retail data.

In February, the minutes of RBA meetings emphasized the risk to the economy. While the management board recognized the strength of the labor market as a key reason for maintaining rates, he noticed that the current tightness was inconsistent with the goal of inflation of 2.5%. Ultimately, the management board recorded a stronger case of cutting rates.

Retail sales of Australia, a key rate of consumer expenditure, increased by 0.3% of the month of the month in January, reflecting from a decrease by 0.1% in December. However, the AST-MORGAN Australian Consumer consumer trust indicator fell to 87.7 of 89.8 last week, when he reached the highest level since May 2022.

Aud also becomes pressure down after the White House confirmed that US President Donald Trump signed an order raising tariffs to Chinese imports to 20%. In particular, Trump has not yet finalized similar orders for Mexico and Canada. Given the role of China as the main trading partner in Australia, all economic changes in China can significantly affect the Australian dollar.

The statement of the Canadian prime minister’s office confirmed that Canada will delay 25% of the US imports from Tuesday, if the defect in the US tariff. Meanwhile, the Chinese Ministry of Trade announced on Tuesday that “necessary remedies” would protect the country’s justified rights and interests.

Australian Financial Review Business Summit 2025 begins on Tuesday, with the participation of industry leaders. David Solomon, president and general director of Goldman Sachs Group, is to speak on Tuesday, while Andrew Hauser, deputy governor of the Australian reserve bank, will ask the participants on Wednesday.

The Australian dollar weakened in connection with increased risk aversion

• The American dollar index (DXY), which measures USD in relation to the six main currencies, remains suppressed by around 106.50 at the time of writing. Greenback stands down pressure as optimism in relation to the potential Ukraine of a peace agreement suppress the demand for unthreatening resources. European leaders expressed support for security guarantees for Ukraine, increasing risk moods in global markets.
• Economic data of the United States (USA) presented mixed signals on Monday. PMI production ISM obtained 50.3, slightly below the forecast 50.5 and fell from January 50.9. On the other hand, the final PMI of S&P Global for February exceeded the expectations of 52.7, improving from pre -reading.
• The PCE inflation report in the US has met expectations, and the monthly PCE header lasts at a constant level of 0.3%. Core PCE increased slightly to 0.3%compared to 0.2%of December, while the annual PCE header was 2.6%, slightly exceeding the forecasts, but they have not changed since December. Core PCE decreased to 2.6%, compared to the changed 2.9% in December.
• According to Bloomberg, citing a defense official, the US “detained” the entire current military assistance in Ukraine. The official stated that all American military equipment would not be detained in Ukraine, including weapons in transport by planes and ships, as well as people waiting in transit areas in Poland. Pause was reportedly ordered by President Trump, and the secretary of defense Pete HegeSth ordered the implementation of the decision.
• Voltage increased between US President Donald Trump and the leader of the Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelenskyy during negotiations in the field of peace agreement on Friday. Zelenskyy was to sign a contract for greater US access to the minerals of scarce lands of Ukraine and would take part in a joint press conference, but the plan was abandoned after a warm exchange between leaders before the media. After the confrontation, in which Trump openly expressed contempt, the best advisers asked Zelenskyy to leave the White House.
• The S&P Global Australian Manufacturing Buxing Managers (PMI) indicator has been revised to 50.4 in February from initial respect 50.6, but remained above 50.2 January. This meant the second month in a month of improving production conditions and the strongest augment since February 2023.
• In February in February, the TD-MI inflation meter in Australia fell by 0.2% of the month of the month, which inverting an augment of 0.1%. This meant the first decline from August last year and the decision of the Australian Bank (RBA) to lower the money rate by 25 base points to 4.1% during the first monetary policy meeting this year, reflecting the continuous slowdown in inflation. However, every year the rate increased by 2.2%, slightly below the previous 2.3%height.
• The Chinese Index of Caixin (PMI) production managers increased to 50.8 in February from January 50.1, exceeding market expectations 50.3. NBS Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.2 in February compared to 49.1 earlier. This number was stronger than expected 49.9. Meanwhile, NBS, which not productive PMI increased to 50.4 in February from 50.2 in January, overcoming respect 50.3.

The Australian dollar maintains the position above 0.6200 support despite the continuous pressure of the bear

Aud/USD is near 0.6210 on Tuesday, remaining under pressure, because it floats below the nine -day interpretation of the movable medium (EMA). This positioning signals the weakness of low -term shoot. In addition, the 14-day relative strength indicator (RSI) remains below 50, strengthening bear.

Despite the pressure down, the couple keeps the key support at the psychological level of 0.6200. The break below this level may reduce the price in the direction of 0.6087, the lowest level from April 2020, registered on February 3.

On the other hand, the initial resistance lies on the nine-day EMA 0.6266, and then an EMA 50-day to 0.6304. The decisive break above the latter could strengthen the low -term shoot, potentially leading to a re -test from three months 0.6408, achieved on February 21.

Aud/USD: Daily Chart