The President of the Federal Bank (FED) Bank of Chicago Austan Goolsbee hit the market on Friday with more bad news, noting that the US government’s incoherent political approach causes a high level of economic uncertainty, which hinders the Fed to draw and the handrails, where the economy goes, and specifically inflation.
Key attractions
It was a solid work report.
Tariffs add some uncertainty.
The potential for escalation of commercial wars throwing the key in the supply chain is very real.
I hope that after what we recently saw that tariffs are not a great obstacle to trade.
I feel comfortable with the path of the economy.
A consumer study showing leap in compact -term inflation expectations is less influential to me.
The wage enhance is in line with 2% inflation.
Longer expectations regarding market inflation show that the market believes that the FED will obtain inflation of up to 2%.
A one -time tariff is a ephemeral shock.
Retaliation would complicate the influence of tariffs.
I see a neutral indicator slightly lower than where we are today.
The Fed is now suspended, but in the next 12-18 months the settlement rules indicator will be much below where it is now.
The speed at which the rates fall will be slower with greater foggy.
We must decide the stake in terms of a reasonable schedule.
What happens in longer rates is not our goal; This is more the range of the Treasury.
I think that reaching a neutral policy indicator will last longer than the end of 20125.
I think we are on the road to 2% inflation.
I don’t think the FED play a role in any sovereign financial fund.