Chatgpt loves Greggs stock! However, there is a problem

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Greggs (LSE: GRG) Shares are all the rage. We see it for a fool. Investors are devouring articles about Britain’s favorite bakery chain. Artificial intelligence (AI) has clearly seen its popularity.

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This morning I asked the AI ​​chatbot to name 2 FTSE 250 stocks that look good to augment in value in 2025. His first suggestion was a fantasy sports producer Games Workshop. Because the supplies came in FTSE 100 In December Chatgpt stands for time. In my experience, this is often the case.

His second choice was good venerable Greggs. Chatgpt praised the group’s solid expansion as it increases the number of stores and invests in online channels.

Have FTSE 250 stocks gone the best?

There was no mention of the recent slowdown in sales, which made me wary. Then I discovered that the answer to my question had been lifted from an article written in September and a lot has changed since then.

Of course, Chatgpt is a computer program, not a typical tipster. And honestly, he’s the first to admit it. It’s fun to play with, but must be handled with extreme care. I would say the same about investing in Greggs at the moment.

The stock had a brilliant run, thanks to witty marketing that carefully positioned sausage rolls and other pastry-based products as a affordable treat in hard times. Naughty, but nice and nothing to be ashamed of.

As confidence grew, management made ambitious plans to augment the number of stores from 2,500 to 3,500, targeted evening openings and pioneering outlets in railway stations, retail parks, airports and the like.

Revenues grew from £811m in 2021 to £1.8bn in 2023. No wonder investors loved it. On January 9, we learned that they had a £2 billion surprise hit in 2024. But there was a catch.

In the first half of last year, total recall-like sales increased by 13.8%. This slowed to 10.6% in Q3 and just 7.7% in Q4. Consumers are fighting back now, and blame the board “A more subdued summary of the street”.

The margins are squeezed

As we know, the British economy is having a hard time. Growth has been essentially flat since the election and a recession is possible. Even the Greggs will struggle to develop, given the bleak outlook on the high street. Increases in national budget employer insurance and the minimum wage will squeeze Margis.

The board emerges, with a forceful pipeline of modern store openings, while closing underperformance to maintain margins. It is also expanding its menu and increasing its digital capabilities as it works on its supply chain.

But analysts forecast sales growth of 2.9% in the coming year. If correct, this would mean a further slowdown.

On the plus side, shares are cheaper. Last year they had a price-to-earnings ratio of over 22. Now it’s down to under 17 times.

Some far-sighted investors may see this as an opportunity to buy Greggs shares, which they can recover when the economy does. I don’t think we are there and will shop elsewhere for FTSE 250 bargains. Whatever chatgpt “thinks”.

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