After several arduous months, danger appears Lloyds (LSE: LLOY) share price could fall below 50p for the first time since March last year.

As a long-term investor in FTSE100 bank, I hope this won’t happen. Although if this happens, it won’t change the investment case in my opinion. I still think this is a solid long-term way to maintain dividend income and share price growth.

Lloyds’ dividend looks quite secure, with a trailing yield of 5.2%. It is currently forecast to be 6.4%, which is still twice covered by earnings.

Can this FTSE 100 bank bounce back?

Unfortunately, the share price is volatile. It’s up 12% in the last 12 months, but down 12% in five years. And it looks like inequality will continue.

There’s a lot to like about Lloyds. Its shares are incredibly budget-friendly, trading at just 6.96 times trailing earnings. Like every bank, it also benefits from rising interest rates, which allows it to escalate its net interest margin. As rates are currently projected to remain higher for an extended period of time, these margins should remain wide.

However, higher rates have disadvantages. They make mortgage loans more exorbitant, which hits demand. This is a blow to Lloyds, the UK’s largest lender. As borrowers experience difficulties, debt impairments may escalate.

Higher interest rates also provide investors with a higher rate of income on cash and bonds, without risking their capital. This makes dividend stocks like Lloyds less attractive.

Everyone is a bit gloomy about the UK economy. This poses a problem for Lloyds, which is exposed to risk due to its narrow focus on domestic retail and commercial banking. If we enter a recession, it will reduce consumer spending, business confidence, loan demand, credit quality and profitability.

Lloyds is working tough to escalate its efficiency through cost-cutting initiatives such as branch closures and a digital transformation program. Skeptics doubt whether the gigantic FTSE banks will be able to adapt to structural changes such as the rise of fintech, although they have dealt with the threat from a competitor quite easily.

I’m expecting a bumpy ride through this magazine

19 analysts offering annual forecasts for Lloyds have set the median share price target at almost 65p. This would represent an escalate of over 20% on today’s 53p. Combined with this efficiency, this would give me a total return of over 25%. We’ll see.

I’m a bit gloomy about the UK’s prospects at the moment. Another shadow hangs over Lloyds in the form of the automotive finance misselling scandal. We don’t know how this will play out, but broker RBC has warned that the bill could reach £3.9 billion. Lloyds only set aside £450 million. Let’s hope RBC is wrong.

The Lloyds share price has plenty of room to rise and could reach 65p this year. However, if the economy deteriorates and motoring finances turn into a fresh PPI, it could just as easily fall to 45p.

I stopped predicting Lloyd’s share price. I’m just going to keep what I have and reinvest any dividends I receive. I think it will make me much richer in the long run. Although it’s ponderous and bumpy.