Australian dollar falls to fresh multi-year low after upbeat US NFP data

The AUD fell 0.73% to 0.6155 on Friday.
Hotter-than-expected NFP strengthens USD demand.
The Fed’s hawkish tilt and US-China trade tensions weigh on Australia.

The Australian dollar remains under ponderous selling pressure following stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, which hovered near multi-year lows around 0.6150. The hawkish change by the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps US Treasury yields high, which further supports the dollar. On the domestic front, expectations from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for interest rate cuts and growing fears of a US-China trade war continue to weaken the Australian currency.

Daily Market Change Summary: US Celebrity Hiring Report Boosts Dollar at Australia’s Expense

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 256,000 fresh jobs added in December, topping the consensus estimate of 160,000; The number for November was revised down to 212,000.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings fell from 4% to 3.9% y/y, somewhat easing inflation concerns.
Markets currently expect only one Fed rate cut in 2025, which will lead to the US Dollar Index (DXY) hitting a high of 109.96 before a minor pullback.
China’s economic uncertainty and renewed tariff concerns are increasing safe-haven dollar flows into the greenback, further burdening trade-sensitive Australia.
The RBA’s dovish outlook and speculation of an imminent interest rate cut add another layer of weakness to the Australian dollar.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Sellers maintain control as RSI signals oversold conditions

The relative strength index (RSI) is around 28, indicating an oversold area and a continuing downtrend. Meanwhile, the moving average divergence (MACD) histogram shows rising red bars, reflecting intensifying bearish momentum. With the rate well below 0.6150, any recovery attempts may prove challenging unless market sentiment improves or the Fed’s hawkish stance softens.

Immediate support is at 0.6150, a multi-year low has just been reached; a break below will expose 0.6100 and then 0.6060 as the next potential floors. On the other hand, initial resistance is approaching 0.6200 and then 0.6260 – an area that needs to be recovered before any meaningful recovery attempt can be made.