- EUR/USD rallied slightly on Friday after recent losses near 1.0430.
- The RSI climbs to negative 44, indicating a subtle recovery but still suggesting that sellers have the upper hand.
- The MACD histogram shows flat green bars, indicating bearish momentum is fading, while the 20-day SMA remains a key obstacle.
The EUR/USD pair ended the shortened week with a moderate rebound, climbing to around 1.0430 on Friday. While this rally provides a brief respite from recent declines, the pair is still trading below the 20-day basic moving average (SMA), highlighting the prevailing downtrend. An SMA holding above current price levels will be the first target on the 2025 agenda if buyers want to reinforce a more constructive outlook.
Technical signals are mixed but cautiously leaning towards bearishness. The relative strength index (RSI) rose sharply to 44 but remains negative, suggesting that bullish efforts are preliminary at best. Meanwhile, the moving average divergence (MACD) histogram shows flat green bars, suggesting that the market may be losing some of its previous bearish trend, but has not yet turned decisively in favor of the bulls.
Looking ahead, traders will need to see a sustained move above the 20-day SMA to confirm a significant trend change. Absent such a breakthrough, the pair will likely remain susceptible to modern selling pressure, maintaining downside risk despite recent stabilization in price action.
