Asia FX gains on increased bets on US interest rate cuts, China stimulus in focus

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Investing.com – Most Asian currencies gained on Thursday as U.S. inflation data reinforced forecasts for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, while attention focused on China’s annual policy meeting for guidance on novel stimulus measures.

Wednesday’s US data showed that inflation rose at the fastest pace in seven months in November, but was largely in line with expectations. This has led markets to price in a 98% chance of a 25 basis point cut next week, down from 81% recorded last week, according to .

It fell by 0.2%, although it also fell slightly during Asian hours on Thursday. However, the dollar remained largely immune amid doubts over how quickly the Fed would cut interest rates in 2025.

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Chinese Yuan Rising; focus on CEWC

On Wednesday, the overseas Chinese yuan pair fell 0.2%, while the onshore pair was largely unchanged.

The focus now turns to the China Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), a two-day meeting that ends on Thursday. The CEWC is a key event as it discusses how China will deal with domestic challenges such as slowing growth, feeble consumption and external pressures such as trade tensions.

China’s top leaders and policymakers are considering the option of devaluing the yuan in 2025 in anticipation of increased US trade tariffs when Donald Trump returns to the White House next month, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing sources.

This potential strategy underscores China’s recognition of the need for stronger economic stimulus to counter Trump’s proposed punitive trade actions, according to the report.

The South Korean won pair rose 0.3% amid the ongoing political crisis in the country. Among the latest events, on Wednesday, South Korean police tried to storm the office of President Yoon Suk Yeol after he was investigated for trying to impose martial law in the country.

“I will fight to the end,” Yoon said on Thursday, sharply criticizing his political opponents and demanding that he be removed from power through impeachment.

The Japanese yen pair fell 0.1%, while the Singapore dollar pair fell.

Elsewhere, the Philippine peso dropped 0.3%, while the Indian rupee rose slightly.

The Australian dollar gains after employment data

The Australian dollar outperformed its peers on Thursday, rising 0.8% after data showed the country rose more than expected in November while falling unexpectedly.

The data prompted market participants to continue to waive assumptions that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates in the near future. The general consensus is that the RBA will begin easing monetary policy in the second quarter of 2025.

The RBA left interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, citing challenging labor market conditions and persistent core inflation in the county.

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