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My Scottish mortgage loan (LSE: SMT) shares have been losing ground lately. This is ironic because on October 24, I expressed stern doubts about my continued popularity FTSE 100 technology-focused investment fund and almost sold it.
More than half of Scottish Mortgage’s portfolio is invested in the US by tech titans Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla AND Metaplatforms all in its resources.
Ahead of the US presidential election, some were concerned about the outlook for technology and the US. As I wrote: “Consulting firm Longview Economics warned the next few months could be bumpy as the Federal Reserve struggles to ensure a soft landing and a knife-edge presidential election approaches.”
Can this trust continue to grow?
As we already know, there was nothing edged about the Electoral College vote. After Donald Trump’s victory, the US stock market went into a frenzy, as did my Scottish mortgage shares.
Interestingly, this process actually began in September, and since then the stock has increased by 23.69%. The confirmation of Trump’s win accelerated this process. As a point of reference, the Scottish Mortgage share price has increased by 32.69% in 12 months. Personally, I’m up 37.12%.
I buy stocks and investment funds with a long-term perspective in mind. I usually don’t care about making a quick profit and moving on. This is not A motley fool way. However, I was always a little concerned about my decision to purchase a Scottish Mortgage in May and August last year.
I generally buy individual stocks or ETFs rather than relying on a fund manager to time the market. The exception is the Scottish mortgage.
However, I noticed that he was following mine S&P500 tracker and technology tracker, Legal and general information Global Technology Index Trustboth within one year and five years. And this is still the case, although the gap has narrowed.
Maybe I’ll simplify my life and sell it
So I found it fascinating that investment banking firm Stifel downgraded Scottish Mortgage, warning that many of the growth stocks in its portfolio were “price for an ideal environment”. He sees foam there. While the share price increased by 36%, the underlying net asset value increased by only 28%.
Stifel warned “significant company-specific risk”with the 10 largest holdings making up half of the fund. Scottish Mortgage also has listed companies and has recently had difficulty successfully exiting its investments (a problem found across the private equity sector). This negatively affects performance, Stifel said.
Owning investment trusts brings with it other complications, such as the whole discount/premium issue. Scottish Mortgage currently has a discount of 8.35% to net asset value. Moreover, it is characterized by high financial leverage, with a net leverage of 12.95%.
On the other hand, the so-called trade with Trump may still last, and Scottish Mortgage actually maintains Elon Musk’s position SpaceXwhich is not publicly traded. It constitutes 4.4% of the portfolio.
I’m not going to make a hasty commitment to sell today. But I’ll be watching this like a hawk. Trading with Trump won’t last forever and as we saw in the 2022 tech sell-off when Scottish mortgages fall, they fall strenuous.