The Australian dollar weakens ahead of the release of the US NFP currency

The Australian dollar attracts some sellers during Friday’s Asian session.
The discouraging GDP data causes the RBA to focus on interest rate cuts, which weighs heavily on Australians.
On Friday, the main topic will be the report on non-farm payrolls in the US.

The Australian dollar (AUD) is losing value on Friday. Disappointing economic growth could prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to adopt a more dovish tone at next week’s monetary policy meeting, potentially leading to a February interest rate cut. This in turn puts some sales pressure on the Australian.

Traders will be closely monitoring the November U.S. jobs report, including nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. The US economy is expected to add 200,000 jobs in November, after gaining 12,000 in October. If the result is weaker than estimated, it may bring the dollar down and negatively affect the AUD/USD quotations.

The Australian dollar is losing traction amid uncertainty

A Reuters poll of 44 economists found the RBA is expected to leave its interest rate unchanged at 4.35% at its next meeting and cut the RBA rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% in the second quarter of 2025 (vs. first quarter in the November survey).
Australia’s GDP grew by 0.3% quarterly in the three months to September, compared with growth of 0.2% in the second quarter. This reading was below the market consensus of 0.4%.
Weekly claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose from 9,000 to 224,000 in the week ending Nov. 29, according to a Thursday release from the U.S. Department of Labor (DoL). This reading was higher than initial estimates and higher than the previous week’s 215,000.
The number of continued unemployment claims decreased by 23,000. to 1.871 million in the week ending November 22.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the U.S. economy is now stronger than the U.S. central bank expected in September when it began cutting interest rates, which means the U.S. central bank may show some restraint in cutting interest rates.

The AUD/USD bearish bias remains unchanged in the long term

The Australian dollar is weaker throughout the day. The AUD/USD pair maintains bearish sentiment on the daily chart as the price is trading below the key 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is trading below the 50 midline near 38.85, indicating bearish momentum. This suggests that the path of least resistance is downwards.

The potential support level appears at 0.6300, which is the lower boundary of the downtrend channel and the psychological level. Bearish candlesticks below this level could attract more sellers to the 0.6285 level, the October 3, 2023 low.

Sustaining the bullish trend above the upper boundary of the 0.6500 trend channel could result in a rally to the 0.6615, 100-day EMA. A decisive break above the mentioned level could expose 0.6687, the November 7 high.