In the wake of the US presidential election, Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing the expected volatility that often accompanies major political events. In Tuesday’s trading, the largest cryptocurrency was hovering between $68,000 and $70,000, with the latter level acting as resistance since Saturday.
Market intelligence firm Crypto Birb has released observations on the election’s potential impact on Bitcoin’s price trajectory, suggesting that based on current indicators, Bitcoin could reach modern record highs above $73,700 in the days after the election.
Bitcoin price could surge to over $263,000
In recent social media updateCrypto Birb highlighted several key numbers for traders and investors, including the uptrend 200-week and 50-week plain moving averages (SMAs), currently at $59,200 and $40,700 respectively, which indicates a bullish long-term outlook for the Bitcoin price.
The company records the presence of over $470 billion in volume listed funds (ETFs) investing in BTC, further contributing to market liquidity, which is crucial for Bitcoin’s upward price movements.
However, a market bloat of 51%, as measured by net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), indicates that much of Bitcoin holders are profitable, which can lead to increased selling pressure if prices rise too quickly.
The market value to realized value (MVRV-Z ratio), currently at 1.86, carries a potential price target of over $263,000, suggesting significant room for upside.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin’s low correlation of 0.16 with the S&P 500 indicates that its price movements are largely independent of customary stock marketswhich could attract investors seeking diversification.
Historical trends suggest November will be forceful
Despite the sanguine long-term outlook, the company suggests investors should remain cautious amid near-term volatility. Crypto Birb noted that the market is experiencing a pointed augment in “price randomness,” a common phenomenon during election cycles.
Key resistance levels have been identified at $70,700 and $72,000, which could prove crucial in determining Bitcoin’s immediate path. The daily trend shows that $70,000 is a a key breaking pointand the company suggests that successfully crossing that threshold could trigger further growth and a retest of all-time highs.
The company also highlights the current sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, which is currently characterized by a “Fear and Greed” index reading of 70, which indicates the state of greed among investors.
Crypto Birb says this sentiment often leads to increased buying activity, but can also signal a potential pullback if prices rise too quickly. Additionally, mining costs are estimated to be around $80,700, suggesting that miners will incur losses if Bitcoin remains below this threshold.
Further strengthening the case for Bitcoin, historical data shows that November was a forceful month for BTC, with an average augment of 14.96% over the last nine years. This means that if the cryptocurrency follows its past movements, it could reach $79,000 by the end of the month.
Moreover, the fourth quarter of the last few years showed an average growth of 50.86%, with the maximum quarterly profit recorded at 470.44%, which suggests that BTC may be poised for significant growth rally in the coming weeks, regardless of the US election results between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency on the market was trading at $69,830, up 3% in 24 hours.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
