• Gold falls from all-time high on robust US jobs data and steady core inflation.
• Investors remain risk-averse ahead of the November 5 US election, with polls showing little difference between Trump and Harris.
• Nonfarm payrolls data and the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision keep investors cautious.

The price of gold fell from an all-time high on Thursday as investors failed to take advantage of falling U.S. Treasury yields. Nevertheless, the precious metal will end the month with gains of over 4% and will remain above the $2,700 threshold.

The XAU/USD rate is $2,745, down 1.49%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell nearly two basis points to 4.284%.

Risk aversion is the most essential issue before the US presidential elections scheduled for November 5. Meanwhile, the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, along with a robust jobs report, weighed on the price of precious metals.

Meanwhile, the latest polls show that the competition for the White House between the Republican candidate, former US President Donald Trump, and the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, is narrowing.

Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that headline inflation declined. However, the personal consumption expenditures core price index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, was unchanged in October from its September level.

The U.S. Department of Labor revealed that the number of Americans filing unemployment claims in the week ending October 26 fell to its lowest level in five months.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain high, even as US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken claimed “great progress” towards a ceasefire in Lebanon. Meanwhile, the Israeli military revealed ballistic missile movements in Iran, hinting that a truce is far from achieved.

Bullion investors are awaiting the nonfarm payrolls report and are pricing in a 95% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week.

Daily Digest Market changes: Gold price falls after good data from the US

• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar’s value against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.18% to 104.08.
• The US headline PCE fell from 2.3% to 2.1% year-over-year (y/y), approaching the Fed’s 2% target. However, core PCE, which excludes variable items, was unchanged at 2.7% y/y, slightly above forecasts of 2.6%.
• US jobless claims for the week ending October 26 fell from 228,000 to to 216 thousand, remaining below the forecast of 230 thousand.
• Data from the Chicago Board of Trade, based on the December federal funds rate futures contract, show that investors estimate the Fed will cut interest rates by 49 basis points (bps) by the end of the year.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook: Gold price drops below $2,750 as bulls catch their breath

Gold has withdrawn from record levels, but remains bullish. If XAU/USD bulls sustain the spot price above $2,700, look for further upside as the price reaches the psychological high of $2,750, ahead of the record high of $2,790. Violation of this second threshold of $2,800 is up for grabs.

On the other hand, if sellers enter the market and push prices below $2,708, where the intraday low from October 23 is located, it will expose the $2,700 barrier. Next up is the September 26 high, which hit support at $2,685, followed by the 50-day plain moving average (SMA) at $2,603.

The momentum suggests the non-alloyable metal may consolidate as the relative strength index (RSI) remains bullish. This means buyers are gaining momentum.