USD/INR remains stable as investors await Fedspeak

Indian rupee stabilizes in Thursday’s Asian session.
The appreciation of the Chinese yuan and sales in US dollars by local importers could boost the value of the Indian rupee.
On Thursday, investors will be watching the final US annual GDP data for the second quarter and comments from FedSpeak.

The Indian Rupee (INR) is trading flat on Thursday. Selling of the US Dollar (USD) by local corporates, foreign capital inflows into Indian stocks and bonds, and a stronger Chinese Yuan could support the local currency. However, a rise in crude oil prices or a risk-averse environment could weigh on the INR and lend a hand limit losses for the pair.

Traders will take more cues from speeches by US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on Thursday, including Chairman Jerome Powell. Any hint of another 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in November could weaken the USD against the INR. The final annual US gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) will be released later in the day. The focus on Friday will be the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

Daily Market Update: Indian Rupee Remains Strong Amid US Dollar Selling by Importers

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Wednesday it estimates India’s economy will grow by 7.0% in fiscal 2025 and 7.2% in fiscal 2026, reiterating its April growth forecast.
Moody’s Analytics noted that the slowdown in the Indian economy will limit the Asia-Pacific region’s economic growth in 2025, as the Indian economy is projected to grow by 6.5% in 2025 compared to an estimated 7.1% in 2024.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said on Wednesday she “strongly supports” the central bank’s decision last week, adding that it would be appropriate to cut interest rates further if inflation continues to decline as expected.
U.S. modern home sales fell 4.7% month over month to 716,000 in August from a revised 751,000 in July, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, a figure that beat expectations.
The headline PCE index is expected to have risen 2.3% year-over-year in August, while the core PCE index is expected to have risen 2.7% in the same reporting period.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR Bearish Trend Remains in Play

The Indian Rupee is trading flat on the day. As per the daily chart, the USD/INR pair maintains a negative outlook below the key 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading below the midline near 38.35, supporting sellers for now.

The continued bearish sentiment could potentially push USD/INR down to 83.44, the low from September 23. A break of this level could encourage sellers to enter the market and expose 83.00, representing the psychological level and the low from May 24.

On the upside, a decisive breakout of the 100-day EMA at 83.62 could see a rally toward the next upside targets near the support-turned-resistance level of 83.75. Further north, the next resistance level comes in at the 84.00 circular marker.