The Bitcoin community has been eagerly awaiting the start of a modern bull market, especially after the recent halving that took place in April. However, according to a recent report analysis According to CryptoQuant analyst Onchained, that moment has not yet come, and there is a reason for that.

In a post published on CryptoQuant QuickTake, Onchained’s analysis focused on the Mourad Long-Term Holder (LTH) indicator, a proprietary metric that tracks UTXO (unspent transaction output) held for more than six months.

This indicator essentially helps gauge market sentiment and accumulation trends among long-term Bitcoin holders, offering valuable information on when BTC could enter its next bullish phase.

Stability in the long-term Mourad index

One of the key indicators highlighted in the analysis is the stability of the Long-Term Holder Mourad Ratio. Historically, when this indicator remains stable, it suggests that the market is not yet ready for a significant move higher.

Onchained explained that a bull run typically only begins when the indicator begins to deviate negatively from these stable levels. Currently, the data shows that Mourad’s LTH indicator is stable, which means that Bitcoin’s bull run has not yet begun.

The stability of the indicator revealed by the analyst indicates that long-term holders of the stock are not yet causing significant price fluctuations in the market and investors need to be patient until more favorable conditions emerge.

For context, the Mourad Ratio is calculated by dividing the value of a long-term Mourad holder’s current transaction (LTH MCTV) by the current bitcoin price.

These calculations reveal the average UTXO value over six months elderly, giving a clearer picture of recent accumulation trends among long-term BTC holders.

Technical data suggests Bitcoin bull run is not here yet

While Onchained’s analysis confirmed that Bitcoin’s bull run has not yet begun, other analysts turned to historical price charts to assess when a BTC bull run could technically begin.

The popular Bitcoin Insight platform known as Bitcoin Archive on X recently illuminated that BTC is on the verge of “bullishly crossing the 5-day chart for the first time in 230 days.”

According to the Bitcoin Archive, the value of BTC increased by 79% and 74% during the last two such events, so if the situation were to repeat itself, the value of Bitcoin could exceed $100,000.

Bitcoin’s MACD indicator is forming a bullish crossover on the 5-day chart for the first time in 230 days.

Last 2x Bitcoin is up 79% and 74%.

#Bitcoin will enhance by OVER $100,000 if this happens again. photo:twitter.com/USTaCzHD44

— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) September 25, 2024

Featured image created with DALL-E, chart from TradingView